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Modeling boundedly rational route choice in crowd evacuation processes
Safety Science ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105590
Xiang Wang 1, 2 , Chraibi Mohcine 2 , Juan Chen 3 , Ruoyu Li 1 , Jian Ma 1
Affiliation  

With the development of modern information technologies, advanced evacuation guidance systems have been widely installed to provide updated route information. However, although pedestrians may know the information of the building and its surrounding environment, they sometimes still use the non-optimal route, that is to say, their decision-making process is rather boundedly rational. To understand the dynamics underlying such behavior, we present a model where we consider two important factors affecting pedestrians’ route estimation, i.e., distance and congestion. The model is then validated, after which, detailed simulation studies have been performed to discuss the influence of those two factors. Results show that for small and open spaces, the influence of the free walking time on pedestrians’ route choice is higher than the congestion queuing time. Moreover, pedestrians prefer changing route in order to save the completion time. For a large virtual building, if pedestrians would like to use short route, pay less attention to congestion route and prefer keeping current route, the route usage can be quite different, some of the routes can be extremely crowded while others can be barely used. On the contrary, if pedestrians do not mind distance difference, prefer avoiding congestion and changing route, significant detour behaviors will be observed, which also increases the evacuation time. This boundedly rational route choice feature results in distinct importance rank of evacuation facilities when considering their failures. The present study deepens our understanding of pedestrian route choice considering bounded rationality and provides a basis for crowd management in building evacuation.



中文翻译:

人群疏散过程中的有限理性路径选择建模

随着现代信息技术的发展,先进的疏散引导系统已被广泛安装,以提供更新的路线信息。然而,尽管行人可能知道建筑物及其周围环境的信息,但他们有时仍会使用非最优路径,也就是说,他们的决策过程是相当有限理性的。为了理解这种行为背后的动态,我们提出了一个模型,其中我们考虑了影响行人路线估计的两个重要因素,即距离和拥堵。然后对模型进行验证,然后进行详细的模拟研究以讨论这两个因素的影响。结果表明,对于小而开放的空间,自由步行时间对行人路线选择的影响高于拥堵排队时间。此外,行人更喜欢改变路线以节省完成时间。对于大型虚拟建筑,如果行人喜欢使用短路线,不太关注拥堵路线而更喜欢保留当前路线,则路线使用可能会有很大不同,有些路线可能非常拥挤,而有些路线几乎无法使用。相反,如果行人不介意距离差异,宁愿避开拥堵和改变路线,则会观察到明显的绕行行为,这也会增加疏散时间。在考虑疏散设施的故障时,这种有限合理的路线选择特征导致疏散设施的重要性等级不同。

更新日期:2021-12-09
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