Abstract

Background:

Regulatory analyses of air pollution policies require the use of concentration–response functions and underlying health data to estimate the mortality and morbidity effects, as well as the resulting benefits, associated with policy-related changes in fine particulate matter $\le 2.5\mathrm{\mu }\mathrm{m}$ (${\mathrm{PM}}_{2.5}$)]. Common practice by U.S. federal agencies involves using underlying health data and concentration–response functions that are not differentiated by racial/ethnic group.

Objectives:

We aim to explore the policy implications of using race/ethnicity-specific concentration–response functions and mortality data in comparison to standard approaches when estimating the impact of air pollution on non-White racial/ethnic subgroups.

Methods:

Using new estimates from the epidemiological literature on race/ethnicity-specific concentration–response functions paired with race/ethnicity-specific mortality rates, we estimated the mortality impacts of air pollution from all sources from a uniform increase in concentrations and from the regulations imposed by the Mercury Air Toxics Standards.

Results:

Use of race/ethnicity-specific information increased ${\mathrm{PM}}_{2.5}\text{-related}$ premature mortality estimates in older populations by 9% and among older Black Americans by 150% for all-source pollution exposure. Under a uniform degradation of air quality and race/ethnicity-specific information, older Black Americans were found to have approximately 3 times higher mortality relative to White Americans, which is obscured under a non–race/ethnicity-specific modeling approach. Standard approaches of using non–racial/ethnic specific information underestimate the benefits of the Mercury Air Toxics Standards to older Black Americans by almost 60% and overestimate the benefits to older White Americans by 14% relative to using a race/ethnicity-specific modeling approach.

Discussion:

Policy analyses incorporating race/ethnicity-specific concentration–response functions and mortality data relative to nondifferentiated inputs underestimate the overall magnitude of ${\mathrm{PM}}_{2.5}$ mortality burden and the disparity in impacts on older Black American populations. Based on our results, we recommend that the best available race/ethnicity-specific inputs are used in regulatory assessments to understand and reduce environmental injustices. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9001

中文翻译：

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PM2.5 的死亡风险：识别政策结果中种族/族裔群体差异的建模方法的比较

摘要

背景：

空气污染政策的监管分析需要使用浓度反应函数和基础健康数据来估计与政策相关的细颗粒物变化相关的死亡率和发病率影响以及由此产生的收益$\le 2.5\mathrm{\mu }\mathrm{米}$(${\mathrm{下午}}_{2.5}$)]。美国联邦机构的常见做法包括使用不按种族/族裔群体区分的基础健康数据和集中反应函数。

目标：

我们的目标是在估计空气污染对非白人种族/族裔亚群的影响时，与标准方法相比，探讨使用种族/族裔特定浓度反应函数和死亡率数据的政策含义。

方法：

使用流行病学文献中关于种族/族裔特定浓度反应函数的新估计值以及种族/族裔特定死亡率，我们根据浓度的统一增加和由汞空气毒物标准。

结果：

种族/民族特定信息的使用增加${\mathrm{下午}}_{2.5}\text{-有关的}$对于全源污染暴露，老年人群的过早死亡率估计为 9%，美国黑人的过早死亡率估计为 150%。在空气质量和种族/民族特定信息统一下降的情况下，发现年长的美国黑人的死亡率是美国白人的大约 3 倍，这在非种族/种族特定的建模方法下被掩盖了。相对于使用特定种族/种族的建模方法，使用非种族/民族特定信息的标准方法将汞空气毒物标准对美国老年黑人的益处低估了近 60%，并将对老年美国白人的益处高估了 14% .

讨论：

政策分析结合了种族/民族特定的浓度 - 反应函数和死亡率数据，相对于未分化的投入，低估了总体规模${\mathrm{下午}}_{2.5}$死亡率负担和对美国黑人老年人口的影响差异。根据我们的结果，我们建议在监管评估中使用最佳可用的种族/民族特定输入，以了解和减少环境不公正。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9001