This paper discusses a quantitative methodology based on the summed probability of radiocarbon dates to reveal complexities and asymmetries in the adoption of technological innovations. By focusing on the spread of the potter’s wheel in the Iberian Peninsula during the first millennium BCE, we examine regional variation in the uptake and prevalence of potter’s wheel-use and explore long-term dynamics between competing ceramic shaping methods.

The chronology of the spread of wheel-made ceramics in the Iberian Peninsula is analysed in a dataset of 576 radiocarbon dates for 245 pottery-bearing phases of 158 sites from across the Iberian Peninsula, utilising the presence-absence of wheel-made, hand-made and imported ceramics as the basis for a range of spatio-temporal analyses.

The results provide the first systematic long-term overview of the trajectories of technological change in ceramic production in Iron Age Iberia, revealing how areas of technological change correspond to broader socio-economic transformations part of the intensification of (inter)regional trade, surplus production and urban lifeways. Our study demonstrates that a focus on variation in the adoption of complex technologies, revealed through radiocarbon dates, can provide new insights into the drivers behind long-term socio-economic change.

本文讨论了一种基于放射性碳测年总概率的定量方法，以揭示采用技术创新的复杂性和不对称性。通过关注公元前第一个千年期间陶轮在伊比利亚半岛的传播，我们研究了陶轮使用的吸收和流行的区域差异，并探索了竞争陶瓷成型方法之间的长期动态。

在伊比利亚半岛上 158 个地点的 245 个陶器阶段的 576 个放射性碳测年数据集中分析了伊比利亚半岛轮式陶瓷传播的年表，利用轮式、手工制造和进口陶瓷作为一系列时空分析的基础。

研究结果首次系统地对伊比利亚铁器时代陶瓷生产技术变革的轨迹进行了系统的长期概述，揭示了技术变革领域如何对应于更广泛的社会经济变革，即（跨）区域贸易、剩余生产的集约化的一部分和城市生活方式。我们的研究表明，关注通过放射性碳测年揭示的复杂技术采用的变化，可以为长期社会经济变化背后的驱动因素提供新的见解。