Agri-food system transitions are a considerable challenge requiring stakeholder alignment on what changes need to be made and how. When stakeholders do not agree on the goals or methods of a transition, this can be a serious obstacle to success. This paper analyzes 42 vision documents for the future of Dutch agriculture from a broad range of stakeholders to determine stakeholder alignment using an inductive coding approach. We identified 23 issues as the main challenges for the transition in these documents. We are the first to categorize them according to a recently proposed problem-solution space for wicked problems. Stakeholders were fully aligned in recognizing the problem for the majority of issues, but showed agreement on solutions for less than a quarter. For the issues of international orientation, sector size, and farm business models, we found a lack of consensus on the problem, indicating fundamental disagreement about the type of agricultural sector desired by stakeholders. The apparent consensus on environmental and social issues provides clear societal expectations for agronomic development and innovation, while the divergence on economic issues highlights the rift between growth-oriented paradigms and more holistic paradigms like agroecology. The crucial empirical novelty of this paper is that progress on environmental and social matters is restricted by divergent views on the economic characteristics of a future agri-food system, adding further complexity to mission-oriented transition and innovation policies.

农业食品系统转型是一项相当大的挑战，需要利益相关者在需要做出哪些改变以及如何改变方面保持一致。当利益相关者不同意过渡的目标或方法时，这可能是成功的严重障碍。本文分析了来自广泛利益相关者的 42 份关于荷兰农业未来的愿景文件，以使用归纳编码方法确定利益相关者的一致性。我们在这些文件中确定了 23 个问题作为过渡的主要挑战。我们是第一个根据最近提出的针对棘手问题的问题解决方案空间对它们进行分类的人。利益相关者完全一致地认识到大多数问题的问题，但只有不到四分之一的人就解决方案达成一致。对于国际定位、行业规模和农场商业模式等问题，我们发现在这个问题上缺乏共识，表明对利益相关者期望的农业部门类型存在根本分歧。在环境和社会问题上的明显共识为农业发展和创新提供了明确的社会期望，而经济问题上的分歧凸显了以增长为导向的范式与更全面的范式（如农业生态学）之间的裂痕。本文的关键经验新颖之处在于，环境和社会问题的进展受到对未来农业食品系统经济特征的不同看法的限制，这进一步增加了以任务为导向的转型和创新政策的复杂性。在环境和社会问题上的明显共识为农业发展和创新提供了明确的社会期望，而经济问题上的分歧凸显了以增长为导向的范式与更全面的范式（如农业生态学）之间的裂痕。本文的关键经验新颖之处在于，环境和社会问题的进展受到对未来农业食品系统经济特征的不同看法的限制，这进一步增加了以任务为导向的转型和创新政策的复杂性。在环境和社会问题上的明显共识为农业发展和创新提供了明确的社会期望，而经济问题上的分歧凸显了以增长为导向的范式与更全面的范式（如农业生态学）之间的裂痕。本文的关键经验新颖之处在于，环境和社会问题的进展受到对未来农业食品系统经济特征的不同看法的限制，这进一步增加了以任务为导向的转型和创新政策的复杂性。