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Asymptotic independence ex machina: Extreme value theory for the diagonal SRE model
Journal of Time Series Analysis ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-05 , DOI: 10.1111/jtsa.12637
Sebastian Mentemeier 1 , Olivier Wintenberger 2
Affiliation  

We consider multivariate stationary processes (Xt) satisfying a stochastic recurrence equation of the form Xt=𝕄tXt1+Qt, where (Qt) are i.i.d. random vectors and 𝕄t=Diag(b1+c1Mt,,bd+cdMt) are i.i.d. diagonal matrices and (Mt) are i.i.d. random variables. We obtain a full characterization of the vector scaling regular variation properties of (Xt), proving that some coordinates Xt, i and Xt, j are asymptotically independent even though all coordinates rely on the same random input (Mt). We prove the asynchrony of extreme clusters among marginals with different tail indices. Our results are applied to some multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (BEKK-ARCH and CCC-GARCH) processes and to log-returns. Angular measure inference shows evidences of asymptotic independence among marginals of diagonal SRE with different tail indices.

中文翻译:

渐近独立 ex machina:对角 SRE 模型的极值理论

我们考虑多元平稳过程(X)满足形式的随机递推方程X=𝕄X-1+, 在哪里()是 iid 随机向量和𝕄=诊断(b1+C1,,bd+Cd)是 iid 对角矩阵, ( M t ) 是 iid 随机变量。我们获得了向量缩放规则变化特性的完整表征(X),证明了一些坐标X t ,  iX t ,  j是渐近独立的,即使所有坐标都依赖于相同的随机输入 ( M t )。我们证明了具有不同尾指数的边缘之间的极端集群的异步性。我们的结果应用于一些多元自回归条件异方差(BEKK-ARCH 和 CCC-GARCH)过程和对数返回。角度测量推断显示了具有不同尾指数的对角 SRE 的边缘之间渐近独立的证据。
更新日期:2021-12-05
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