ABSTRACT

The U.S. policy toward North Korea has always been issue of great concern and research focus. According to the grain production data of North Korea, and combined with perspectives from experts of China, the United States and South Korea, this paper tries to make a tentative judgment of the hawk/dove tendency of the five U.S. Presidents' remarks on North Korea from 1989 to 2019. The results show that: (1) The hawkish tendency in the presidents' attitudes has a certain relationship with North Korea's grain production. However, dove tendency is related to grain yield and its fluctuation rate, and the impact of the rate on the dove stance is even greater than the impact of production. (2) When North Korea's grain production increases, the presidents' stance on North Korea's policy tends to be tough; but when its grain production decreases, the presidents' attitudes towards North Korea will become relatively moderate. (3) The fluctuation rate of grain production in North Korea will affect the dove tendency of the presidents. Their stance will be more moderate if the rate decrease. But if the rate rises, the moderation of the statements will retreat.

摘要

美国对朝政策一直是备受关注和研究的热点问题。本文根据朝鲜粮食生产数据，并结合中美韩专家的观点，试图对美国五位总统对朝言论的鹰派倾向做出初步判断。从1989年到2019年。结果表明：（1）总统态度的鹰派倾向与朝鲜的粮食生产有一定的关系。但鸽子倾向与粮食产量及其波动率有关，波动率对鸽子姿态的影响甚至大于产量的影响。（2）当朝鲜粮食增产时，总统对朝鲜政策的立场趋于强硬；但当其粮食减产时，总统对朝鲜的态度会相对温和。（3）朝鲜粮食产量波动率会影响总统鸽派倾向。如果利率下降，他们的立场会更加温和。但如果利率上升，声明的缓和度就会回落。