We study the contribution of loans, granted to different borrower groups, to economic activity in the United States over the period 1971q1–2018q4. In general, loans to households emerge as the most important driver of economic activity when compared to other borrower groups. Meanwhile, for loans in terms of scope, consumer credit has a prime role. Deep economic recessions occurred during the period considered, we focus on the recent global financial crisis (GFC) to reveal the role of the credit crunch. The analysis confirms that loans had a large negative effect during the GFC when compared to other concurrent shocks. Furthermore, a comparison with other periods in post-war US history points to the specific role that loans played in this last crisis. The results are delivered through a historical decomposition analysis based on the estimation of a large VAR through Bayesian techniques.

中文翻译：

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在危机和增长时期向不同群体和经济活动提供贷款*

我们研究了 1971 年第一季度至 2018 年第四季度期间授予不同借款人群体的贷款对美国经济活动的贡献。一般来说，与其他借款人群体相比，家庭贷款成为经济活动的最重要驱动力。同时，对于贷款范围而言，消费信贷具有首要作用。考虑在经济深度衰退期间发生的时期，我们关注最近的全球金融危机（GFC）来揭示信贷紧缩的作用。分析证实，与其他同时发生的冲击相比，贷款在全球金融危机期间产生了很大的负面影响。此外，与战后美国历史上其他时期的比较表明，贷款在最后一次危机中发挥的特殊作用。