Skipjack tuna play a significant role in global marine fisheries and are of particular interest for socio-economy in the tropical waters of the Mozambique Channel. However, human-induced climate change has been leading to a reduction and reallocation of biomass, along with other ecological changes, thereby creating a feedback loop with negative socio-economic consequences for fisheries-reliant coastal communities. The objective of this study was to predict the potential skipjack tuna fishing grounds by 2050 and 2100. To that end, skipjack tuna catch data were collected from Spanish purse seine fleets, and subsequently, generalized additive models were used to model these data against a combination of environmental variables and future pathway projections from BIO-ORACLE models under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios. Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios by 2050 predicted that the potential fishing grounds will relocate southward from tropical to more temperate waters, with moderate shifts in the potential fishing grounds of purse seines to the latitude >16°S, whereas the pessimistic scenario predicted higher displacement catches of purse seines in the southernmost part (>24°S) and moderate to high catches in northern (>20°S) of the Mozambique Channel by the end of the century. Despite the degree of uncertainty surrounding the climate change impacts on skipjack tuna, we argue that fisheries stakeholders, administrators and regional tuna fisheries management organizations should work towards building resilience and ensuring sustainability while reducing or mitigating vulnerability and climate change impacts on local and regional communities and their livelihoods.

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模拟气候变化对莫桑比克海峡鲣鱼 (Katsuwonus pelamis) 的影响

鲣鱼在全球海洋渔业中发挥着重要作用，对莫桑比克海峡热带水域的社会经济特别感兴趣。然而，人类引起的气候变化已经导致生物量的减少和重新分配，以及其他生态变化，从而形成了一个反馈循环，对依赖渔业的沿海社区产生了负面的社会经济后果。本研究的目的是预测 2050 年和 2100 年潜在的鲣鱼渔场。为此，从西班牙围网船队收集鲣鱼捕获数据，随后，使用广义加性模型对这些数据进行建模BIO-ORACLE 模型在乐观（RCP2.6）和悲观（RCP8.5）情景下的环境变量和未来路径预测。到 2050 年的乐观和悲观情景都预测，潜在渔场将从热带向南迁移到更温和的水域，围网的潜在渔场适度转移到纬度 >16°S，而悲观情景预测更高的排水量渔获量到本世纪末，莫桑比克海峡最南端（>24°S）的围网渔获量和北部（>20°S）的中高渔获量。尽管气候变化对鲣鱼的影响存在一定程度的不确定性，但我们认为渔业利益相关者，