Hubble tension or a transition of the Cepheid SnIa calibrator parameters?,Physical Review D

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Hubble tension or a transition of the Cepheid SnIa calibrator parameters?
Physical Review D ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-02 , DOI: 10.1103/physrevd.104.123511
Leandros Perivolaropoulos , Foteini Skara

We reanalyze the Cepheid data used to infer the value of the Hubble constant

H_{0}

by calibrating type Ia supernovae. We do not enforce a universal value of the empirical Cepheid calibration parameters

R_{W}

(Cepheid Wesenheit color-luminosity parameter) and

M_{H}^{W}

(Cepheid Wesenheit H-band absolute magnitude). Instead, we allow for variation of either of these parameters for each individual galaxy. We also consider the case where these parameters have two universal values: one for low galactic distances

D < D_{c}

and one for high galactic distances

D > D_{c}

, where

D_{c}

is a critical transition distance. We find hints for a

3 σ

level mismatch between the low and high galactic distance parameter values. We then use model selection criteria [Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)], which penalize models with large numbers of parameters, to compare and rank the following types of

R_{W}

and

M_{H}^{W}

parameter variations: Base models: Universal values for

R_{W}

and

M_{H}^{W}

(no parameter variation), I: Individual fitted galactic

R_{W}

with one universal fitted

M_{H}^{W}

, II: One universal fixed

R_{W}

with individual fitted galactic

M_{H}^{W}

, III: One universal fitted

R_{W}

with individual fitted galactic

M_{H}^{W}

, IV: Two universal fitted

R_{W}

(near and far) with one universal fitted

M_{H}^{W}

, V: One universal fitted

R_{W}

with two universal fitted

M_{H}^{W}

(near and far), and VI: Two universal fitted

R_{W}

(near and far) with two universal fitted

M_{H}^{W}

(near and far). We find that the AIC and BIC model selection criteria consistently favor model IV instead of the commonly used Base model, where no variation is allowed for the Cepheid empirical parameters. The best-fit value of the SnIa absolute magnitude

M_{B}

and of

H_{0}

implied by the favored model IV is consistent with the inverse distance ladder calibration based on the cosmic microwave background sound horizon

H_{0} = 67.4 \pm 0.5 km s^{- 1} {Mpc}^{- 1}

. Thus, in the context of the favored model IV the Hubble crisis is not present. This model may imply the presence of a fundamental physics transition taking place at a time more recent than