Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in the future, but the changes are expected to be unevenly distributed across the globe. Based on multi-model simulations under three different future emissions and shared socioeconomic pathways, we show that a significant drought intensification is expected in dry regions, whereby the severity depends on greenhouse gas emissions and development pathways. The drought hotspots are located in the sub-tropical regions where a moderate to extreme summer drought in today’s climate is expected to become a new normal by the end of the 21^st century under the warmest scenario. On average, under the warmest future scenario, the drought occurrence rate is projected to be 100% higher than that of the low emission scenario. Further, for the regions which are currently less affected by long-lasting droughts, such as the European continent, climate models indicate a significant increase in drought occurrence probability under the warmest future scenario.

预计未来干旱的频率和严重程度会增加，但预计这些变化将在全球分布不均。基于三种不同未来排放和共享社会经济路径下的多模型模拟，我们表明干旱地区预计干旱会显着加剧，其严重程度取决于温室气体排放和发展路径。干旱热点位于亚热带地区，其中中度到极度干旱的夏天在今天的气候预计将在21月底成为新的常态^ST世纪在最温暖的情况下。平均而言，在未来最暖情景下，干旱发生率预计比低排放情景高 100%。此外，对于目前受长期干旱影响较小的地区，如欧洲大陆，气候模型表明，在未来最温暖的情景下，干旱发生的概率会显着增加。