Historical records of Atlantic hurricane activity, extending back to 1851, show increasing activity over time, but much or all of this trend has been attributed to lack of observations in the early portion of the record. Here we use a tropical cyclone downscaling model driven by three global climate analyses that are based mostly on sea surface temperature and surface pressure data. The results support earlier statistically-based inferences that storms were undercounted in the 19^th century, but in contrast to earlier work, show increasing tropical cyclone activity through the period, interrupted by a prominent hurricane drought in the 1970s and 80 s that we attribute to anthropogenic aerosols. In agreement with earlier work, we show that most of the variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the last century was directly related to regional rather than global climate change. Most metrics of tropical cyclones downscaled over all the tropics show weak and/or insignificant trends over the last century, illustrating the special nature of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology.

大西洋飓风活动的历史记录可以追溯到 1851 年，显示活动随着时间的推移不断增加，但这种趋势的大部分或全部归因于记录早期缺乏观测。在这里，我们使用由三个主要基于海面温度和表面压力数据的全球气候分析驱动的热带气旋降尺度模型。研究结果支持早期的基于统计推断的是风暴中的19漏计^次世纪，但与早期的工作相反，显示在此期间热带气旋活动不断增加，被 1970 年代和 80 年代的显着飓风干旱中断，我们将其归因于人为气溶胶。与早期的工作一致，我们表明，上个世纪北大西洋热带气旋活动的大部分变化与区域气候变化而不是全球气候变化直接相关。在所有热带地区缩小规模的热带气旋的大多数指标在上个世纪都显示出微弱和/或微不足道的趋势，这说明了北大西洋热带气旋气候学的特殊性。