Soil seed banks represent a critical but hidden stock for potential future plant diversity on Earth. Here we compiled and analyzed a global dataset consisting of 15,698 records of species diversity and density for soil seed banks in natural plant communities worldwide to quantify their environmental determinants and global patterns. Random forest models showed that absolute latitude was an important predictor for diversity of soil seed banks. Further, climate and soil were the major determinants of seed bank diversity, while net primary productivity and soil characteristics were the main predictors of seed bank density. Moreover, global mapping revealed clear spatial patterns for soil seed banks worldwide; for instance, low densities may render currently species-rich low latitude biomes (such as tropical rain-forests) less resilient to major disturbances. Our assessment provides quantitative evidence of how environmental conditions shape the distribution of soil seed banks, which enables a more accurate prediction of the resilience and vulnerabilities of plant communities and biomes under global changes.

土壤种子库代表了地球上潜在的未来植物多样性的重要但隐藏的存量。在这里，我们编译并分析了一个全球数据集，该数据集由 15,698 条全球天然植物群落土壤种子库的物种多样性和密度记录组成，以量化其环境决定因素和全球模式。随机森林模型表明，绝对纬度是土壤种子库多样性的重要预测因子。此外，气候和土壤是种子库多样性的主要决定因素，而净初级生产力和土壤特征是种子库密度的主要预测因素。此外，全球测绘揭示了全球土壤种子库的清晰空间模式；例如，低密度可能会使目前物种丰富的低纬度生物群落（如热带雨林）对重大干扰的适应能力降低。我们的评估提供了环境条件如何影响土壤种子库分布的定量证据，从而能够更准确地预测全球变化下植物群落和生物群落的弹性和脆弱性。