Some adaptation measures in response to the severe impacts of climate change on Mediterranean olive orchards were evaluated under a wide range of weather conditions. For this task, a decision support system for improving resources management by the integration of the AdaptaOlive simulation model, perturbed climate and impact and adaptation response surfaces for the model output analysis was developed. Thus, the introduction of irrigation (considering different irrigation strategies such as full demand, regulated deficit irrigation or irrigation support), the implementation of cultivars with lower chilling requirements, the modification of orchard density and an increase in irrigation efficiency were evaluated under current and future weather conditions.

Optimal sustainable and environmentally friendly adaptation measures varied depending on the local weather conditions. Thus, the introduction of irrigation provided excellent results under dry and cool winter weather conditions. Cultivars with low chilling requirements reduced flowering failure associated with the lack of chill accumulation and registered optimal performance under mild winter conditions. This adaptation measure played a critical role under these weather conditions, even more so than measures focused on preventing water stress as irrigation. Finally, increasing orchard density was appropriate in non-water-limited areas with cool winter conditions.

This study confirms the great importance of integrating crop modelling and tools for model output analysis into the assessment of site-specific adaptation measures to climate change, in order to ensure the sustainability of Mediterranean agricultural systems under semi-arid conditions.

在各种天气条件下评估了一些应对气候变化对地中海橄榄园的严重影响的适应措施。为此，开发了一个决策支持系统，通过整合 AdaptaOlive 模拟模型、扰动气候和影响以及模型输出分析的适应响应面来改进资源管理。因此，在当前和未来评估了灌溉的引入（考虑不同的灌溉策略，例如充分需求、调节亏缺灌溉或灌溉支持）、实施具有较低冷却要求的品种、改变果园密度和提高灌溉效率。天气状况。

最佳的可持续和环境友好的适应措施因当地天气条件而异。因此，在干燥和凉爽的冬季天气条件下，灌溉的引入提供了极好的结果。低温要求低的品种减少了与缺乏寒冷积累相关的开花失败，并在温和的冬季条件下获得了最佳性能。这种适应措施在这些天气条件下发挥了关键作用，甚至比防止灌溉等水资源压力的措施更重要。最后，在冬季凉爽的非缺水地区增加果园密度是合适的。

这项研究证实了将作物建模和模型输出分析工具整合到特定地点的气候变化适应措施评估中的重要性，以确保半干旱条件下地中海农业系统的可持续性。