Abstract

Using case-level data, this study tests whether an increase in average crime-to-disposition time for felony arrests affects case outcomes. These outcomes are the likelihood of no-conviction, the likelihood of downgrading during the case disposition process (regardless of whether the case resulted in a conviction or no conviction), and the likelihood of an incarceration sentence. On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy produced extreme weather conditions in the greater New York City area, including Kings County. For felonies committed during the two-week period (October 28, 2012–November 10, 2012), Kings County experienced, on average, a 20.2% increase (34.3 days) in crime-to-disposition time. This increase provides an instrumental variable (IV) to test the effect of crime-to-disposition time on criminal case outcomes. Neither the hurricane aftermath nor a crime-to-disposition delay had any significant effect on the likelihood of incarceration, the likelihood of no-conviction, or the likelihood of downgrading. As a theoretical matter, the IV estimates suggest that reduced celerity (operationalized by a 20% increase in case processing time) does not affect the severity of punishment (operationalized by incarceration), the certainty of punishment (operationalized by the likelihood of no-conviction), or case processing complexity (operationalized by the likelihood of downgrading).

摘要

本研究使用案件级别的数据，测试重罪逮捕的平均犯罪到处置时间的增加是否会影响案件结果。这些结果是不定罪的可能性、在案件处理过程中降级的可能性（无论案件是否定罪或未定罪）以及判处监禁的可能性。2012 年 10 月 29 日，飓风桑迪在包括金斯县在内的大纽约地区造成极端天气状况。对于在两周期间（2012 年 10 月 28 日至 2012 年 11 月 10 日）犯下的重罪，金斯县的犯罪到处置时间平均增加了 20.2%（34.3 天）。这种增加提供了一个工具变量 (IV) 来测试犯罪到处置时间对刑事案件结果的影响。无论是飓风后果还是从犯罪到处置的延迟都不会对监禁的可能性、无罪的可能性或降级的可能性产生任何重大影响。作为一个理论问题，IV 估计表明，降低速度（通过增加 20% 的案件处理时间来实现）不会影响惩罚的严重性（通过监禁来实现）、惩罚的确定性（通过不定罪的可能性来实现） )，或案例处理的复杂性（根据降级的可能性进行操作）。