Several studies have established that atmospheric flows have a finite range of predictability, which may be reasonably considered a consequence of the underlying dynamics. In the midlatitudes, error growth is predominantly associated with baroclinic disturbances. We consider midlatitude error growth in two models: an idealized dry dynamical core and a comprehensive atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). By systematically varying equator to pole temperature gradients in the dynamical core, we show that with increasing Eady growth rates, the time elapsed before errors saturate decreases, shortening the window in which weather predictions may be useful. We also consider the limits of midlatitude predictability in the comprehensive moist GCM in a range of climates. Our results show that the times to error saturation are shorter in warmer climates than colder climates, suggesting that warmer climates are inherently less predictable.

中文翻译：

---

大气 GCM 中的中纬度误差增长：涡流增长率的作用

几项研究已经确定，大气流动具有有限范围的可预测性，可以合理地将其视为潜在动力学的结果。在中纬度地区，误差增长主要与斜压扰动有关。我们在两个模型中考虑中纬度误差增长：理想化的干动力核心和综合大气环流模型 (GCM)。通过系统地改变动力学核心中赤道到极地的温度梯度，我们表明随着 Eady 增长率的增加，误差饱和之前经过的时间减少，从而缩短了天气预报可能有用的窗口。我们还考虑了各种气候下综合潮湿 GCM 中纬度可预测性的限制。