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Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
Nature Climate Change ( IF 30.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-11-29 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2
Keywan Riahi 1, 2 , Daniel Huppmann 1 , Joeri Rogelj 1, 3 , Anique-Marie Cabardos 1 , Andre Deppermann 1 , Stefan Frank 1 , Oliver Fricko 1 , Shinichiro Fujimori 1, 4, 5 , Volker Krey 1, 6 , Mykola Gusti 1, 7 , Paul Kishimoto 1 , Gamze Ünlü 1 , Bas van Ruijven 1 , Behnam Zakeri 1 , Christoph Bertram 8 , Gunnar Luderer 8, 9 , Florian Humpenöder 8 , Elmar Kriegler 8, 10 , Malte Meinshausen 8, 11 , Alexander Popp 8 , Valentina Bosetti 12, 13 , Laurent Drouet 13 , Massimo Tavoni 13, 14 , Ken Oshiro 4, 5 , Tomoko Hasegawa 5, 15 , Junya Takakura 5 , Mathijs Harmsen 16, 17 , Detlef van Vuuren 16, 17 , Leonidas Paroussos 18 , Zoi Vrontisi 18 , Kostas Fragkiadakis 18 , Roberto Schaeffer 19 , Pedro R. R. Rochedo 19 , Matthias Weitzel 20 , Jacques Després 20 , Florian Fosse 20 , Kimon Keramidas 20 , Bob van der Zwaan 21, 22, 23 , Francesco Dalla Longa 21 , Larissa P. Nogueira 21
Affiliation  

Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.



中文翻译:

在不超调的情况下实现严格的气候目标的成本和可实现性

全球排放情景在评估减缓气候变化的战略中发挥着关键作用。然而,目前的情景受到批评,因为它们的特点是明显超过全球温度目标的策略,需要一个长期的修复阶段,以通过净负排放再次降低温度。有些影响可能是不可逆的。因此,我们探索了一组具有有限超调的新的净零 CO 2排放情景。我们表明,短期内需要进行前期投资以限制温度超调,但这将带来长期的经济收益。我们的研究进一步确定了净零 CO 2的替代配置排放系统以及不同部门和地区在平衡源和汇方面的作用。即使没有净负排放,CO 2去除对于加速近期减排和提供人为汇以抵消难以减排的部门的残余排放也很重要。

更新日期:2021-11-29
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