Existing electric power systems have been being faced with great concerns on climate change mitigation through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are considered the next generation of power technologies, offering stable, safe, and environmental-friendly power. This research initially establishes a multi-stochastic SMR siting model (SSMRS) based on a dynamic mixed-integer left-hand-side chance-constrained multistage programming (DMLCM) method, aiming to provide solid bases for electric power system management to promote GHG mitigation under uncertainties and advance the practical application of SMRs in a regional electric power system. The model is applied to emission-intensive Saskatchewan power systems, which have a high reliance on fossil fuels. The commissioned coal-fired and gas-fired power plants in Saskatchewan are identified as potential sites for employing SMRs. A series of scenarios regarding technical development and carbon policies are analyzed to study the interrelationships among technological competition, policy efficiency, and system-failure risk. This is the first attempt to apply an optimization-based modeling approach for siting SMRs in Saskatchewan with detailed consideration of other new-emerging emission reduction technologies. We found that a carbon tax ranging from 30 to 40$/tonne might be reasonable in Saskatchewan after 2030 while the SMR would be partly commercially viable, occupying ∼>15% of total installed capacity. The solution obtained could provide scientific bases for decision-makers to determine optimal schemes for power supply, capacity expansions, and system costs under environmental targets, and particularly identify construction schemes for SMRs at specific sites in different periods under various risk levels.

近几十年来，现有的电力系统一直面临着通过减少温室气体排放来缓解气候变化的极大关注。小型模块化反应堆（SMR）被认为是下一代电力技术，可提供稳定、安全和环保的电力。本研究初步建立了基于动态混合整数左侧机会约束多级规划（DMLCM）方法的多随机SMR选址模型（SSMRS），旨在为电力系统管理提供坚实的基础，以促进温室气体减排并推进 SMR 在区域电力系统中的实际应用。该模型适用于高度依赖化石燃料的排放密集型萨斯喀彻温省电力系统。萨斯喀彻温省已投产的燃煤和燃气发电厂被确定为采用 SMR 的潜在地点。分析了一系列有关技术发展和碳政策的情景，以研究技术竞争、政策效率和系统故障风险之间的相互关系。这是首次尝试将基于优化的建模方法应用于萨斯喀彻温省的 SMR 选址，并详细考虑了其他新兴的减排技术。我们发现，在 2030 年后萨斯喀彻温省征收 30 至 40 美元/吨的碳税可能是合理的，而 SMR 将部分具有商业可行性，占总装机容量的 15% 以上。所得解决方案可为决策者确定供电、扩容、