The study evaluated climate change impact on water flows and nutrient loads to surface water bodies in Lithuania by applying the SWAT model. Seven RCM and GCM combinations were selected and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change representative concentration pathways were selected for the study. The study concluded that an annual and winter increase in most river water flows are expected. The change will be driven by rising precipitation, mainly in the regions where it is already high. Less snow would result in less surface runoff, substituted by increased lateral and groundwater flows because of more water percolating through the soils. As a result, water flows could be expected to increase by 9.7% for RCP4.5 and by 35.4% for the RCP8.5 climate scenario by the end-century. Whereas sediment transport and phosphorus loads would tend to decline a little bit (median results are -11.4% and -5.6% respectively for the RCP4.5 scenario, -13.3% and -7.4% for the RCP8.5 by the end of century). Conversely, temperature driven nutrient mineralization and increased leaching are expected to cause a significant increase in nitrogen loads (by 23.1% for the RCP4.5 scenario and by 64.4% for the RCP8.5 by the end of century). Overall, it could be concluded that climate change related hydrometeorological and water quality changes were found to be the most profound for the end-century RCP8.5 climate change scenario.

该研究通过应用 SWAT 模型评估了气候变化对立陶宛地表水体的水流和养分负荷的影响。选择了七种 RCM 和 GCM 组合，并选择了 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 气候变化代表性浓度路径进行研究。该研究得出的结论是，预计大多数河流水流量每年和冬季都会增加。这种变化将由降水增加推动，主要发生在已经很高的地区。更少的雪将导致更少的地表径流，取而代之的是增加的横向和地下水流量，因为更多的水渗入土壤。因此，到本世纪末，RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 气候情景的水流量预计将增加 9.7% 和 35.4%。而泥沙输送和磷负荷会略有下降（到本世纪末，RCP4.5 情景的中位数结果分别为 -11.4% 和 -5.6%，RCP8.5 情景的中位数结果分别为 -13.3% 和 -7.4%） . 相反，温度驱动的养分矿化和增加的浸出预计会导致氮负荷显着增加（到本世纪末，RCP4.5 情景增加 23.1%，RCP8.5 情景增加 64.4%）。总体而言，可以得出结论，气候变化相关的水文气象和水质变化被认为是世纪末 RCP8.5 气候变化情景中最深刻的。温度驱动的养分矿化和增加的浸出预计将导致氮负荷显着增加（到本世纪末，RCP4.5 情景增加 23.1%，RCP8.5 情景增加 64.4%）。总体而言，可以得出结论，气候变化相关的水文气象和水质变化被认为是世纪末 RCP8.5 气候变化情景中最深刻的。温度驱动的养分矿化和增加的浸出预计将导致氮负荷显着增加（到本世纪末，RCP4.5 情景增加 23.1%，RCP8.5 情景增加 64.4%）。总体而言，可以得出结论，气候变化相关的水文气象和水质变化被认为是世纪末 RCP8.5 气候变化情景中最深刻的。