Security system vulnerability is closely related to the occurrence and development of security accidents in petrochemical plants. It also affects security accident evolution, and the state of security accident changes and in turn acts on the system vulnerability. However, few studies have been performed on the coupling effect of security system vulnerability and security incidents on this evolution process. In this study, the correlation between security system vulnerability and security incident is analyzed from three aspects, namely, evolutionary roots, time dimension, and space dimension. A full-cycle coupling evolution model between security system vulnerability and security incidents is established. The quantitative coupling evolution law among them is also obtained. The coupling evolution relationship between security system vulnerability and security incidents in petrochemical plants is examined in detail, and an illustrative case is used to explain the rationality of our findings. Results reveal that security system vulnerability plays a leading role in each of the four security incident evolution periods.

安全系统漏洞与石化厂安全事故的发生和发展密切相关。它还影响安全事故演化，安全事故状态发生变化，进而作用于系统脆弱性。然而，关于安全系统脆弱性和安全事件对这一演化过程的耦合效应的研究很少。本研究从演化根、时间维度和空间维度三个方面分析安全系统脆弱性与安全事件的相关性。建立了安全系统漏洞与安全事件的全周期耦合演化模型。还得到了它们之间的定量耦合演化规律。详细考察了石化厂安全系统脆弱性与安全事件之间的耦合演化关系，并通过一个说明性案例来说明研究结果的合理性。结果表明，安全系统漏洞在四个安全事件演变阶段中的每一个中都起着主导作用。