The fault propagation of multistate systems (MSSs) with various operational modes is a critical factor affecting the reliability and safety of systems. However, traditional methods have difficulty describing the influence of function transitions and multiple faults of components on fault propagation, and are inapplicable for accurately evaluating the dynamic reliability of MSSs. To solve these issues, an agent-based method is developed to evaluate the dynamic reliability of MSSs. This study proposes a reliability modeling framework that consists of a management agent and several system agents. Combined with different agents, two types of models are established to describe the logical relationships among components. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the dynamic reliability of MSSs, and a visual failure paths analysis method is proposed to inhibit potential risk. The LH4–1 horizontal Christmas tree is used to verify the effectiveness of proposed method. Under the designed working condition, the dynamic reliability curve of system with three operational modes and the visual failure paths including 15-node are obtained. By comparing the influence of failure rates, it is found that the production choke valve, flowlines, tree cap and MEG chemical control valve have a great impact on the system reliability.

具有各种操作模式的多态系统 (MSS) 的故障传播是影响系统可靠性和安全性的关键因素。然而，传统方法难以描述功能转换和组件的多重故障对故障传播的影响，无法准确评估MSS的动态可靠性。为了解决这些问题，开发了一种基于代理的方法来评估 MSS 的动态可靠性。本研究提出了一个由管理代理和几个系统代理组成的可靠性建模框架。结合不同的代理，建立两类模型来描述组件之间的逻辑关系。此外，蒙特卡罗模拟用于评估 MSS 的动态可靠性，并提出了一种可视化故障路径分析方法来抑制潜在风险。LH4-1 水平圣诞树用于验证所提出方法的有效性。在设计工况下，得到了三种运行模式下系统的动态可靠性曲线和包含15个节点的可视化故障路径。通过比较故障率的影响，发现生产节流阀、出油管线、采油树帽和MEG化学控制阀对系统可靠性的影响很大。