Abstract. The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment.

中文翻译：

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北极监测和评估计划的短期气候强迫模型评估：多物种、多模型研究

摘要。北极大气正在迅速变暖，其相对原始的环境对大气污染物的远距离传输很敏感。虽然二氧化碳是全球变暖的主要原因，但甲烷、臭氧和颗粒等短寿命气候强迫因子 (SLCF) 在近期时间尺度上也在北极气候中发挥作用。大气建模对于了解整个北极大气中 SLCF 的丰度和分布至关重要，并且被用作确定当前和未来排放情景中 SLCF 对气候和健康影响的工具。在这项研究中，我们评估了 18 个最先进的大气和地球系统模型，评估了它们对北极和北半球大气 SLCF 分布的表示，同时考虑了各种不同的化学物质（甲烷、对流层臭氧及其前体、黑碳、硫酸盐、有机气溶胶和颗粒物）和多个观测数据集。为 2021 年北极监测和评估计划 (AMAP) SLCF 评估报告进行的四年（2008-2009 年和 2014-2015 年）模型模拟​​根据卫星、地面、船舶和飞机的观测进行了彻底评估。结果显示模型性能的范围很大，没有一种特定模型或模型类型对所有区域和所有 SLCF 物种都表现良好。多模型平均值能够代表北极 SLCF 的一般特征，尽管垂直混合、远程传输、沉积和野火排放仍然是高度不确定的过程。