Induced earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing are a growing concern, with risks that are often managed by traffic light protocols (TLPs). Here, we apply a risk-informed strategy for choosing TLP red-light thresholds. We utilize a combination of probabilistic maximum magnitudes, formation depth, site amplification, ground motion relationships, felt/damaging shaking tolerances, and population information to simulate the spatial distribution of nuisance and damage impacts. We apply this approach to many of the prominent North American shale plays that have caused earthquakes: the Horn River Basin, the Duvernay Formation, the Montney Formation, the Utica Shale, the Marcellus Shale, the SCOOP & STACK play in Oklahoma, the Eagle Ford Formation, and the Delaware Basin. We find that induced earthquake impacts are spatially heterogeneous, depending most strongly on population density. These spatial heterogeneities vary on different length scales, depending on if they are related to nuisance (longer range, 100s kms) or damage (shorter range, 10s kms). Because of this variability, we suggest an approach that sets red-light magnitudes based on tolerances to nuisance and damage risks (varying between Mw 2.0–5.0). Comparison of the results between North American shale plays where TLPs have been enacted suggests that nuisance risks have been an influencing factor in determining red-light thresholds. Our method provides quantitative guidelines for traffic light protocols designed in a risk-informed manner that retains the implementational simplicity of magnitude-based thresholds. In addition, our results provide a benchmark for jurisdictional nuisance tolerances that future TLPs could be guided by.

中文翻译：

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选择红灯阈值来管理北美水力压裂诱发地震的策略

由水力压裂引起的诱发地震越来越受到关注，其风险通常由交通灯协议 (TLP) 管理。在这里，我们应用风险告知策略来选择 TLP 红灯阈值。我们利用概率最大震级、地层深度、场地放大、地面运动关系、有感/破坏性震动容限和人口信息的组合来模拟滋扰和破坏影响的空间分布。我们将这种方法应用于许多引起地震的著名北美页岩区：Horn River Basin、Duvernay 组、Montney 组、Utica 页岩、Marcellus 页岩、俄克拉荷马州的 SCOOP & STACK 区、Eagle Ford形成和特拉华盆地。我们发现诱发地震的影响在空间上是异质的，最强烈地取决于人口密度。这些空间异质性在不同的长度尺度上有所不同，具体取决于它们是否与滋扰（更长距离，100 秒公里）或损坏（更短距离，10 秒公里）有关。由于这种可变性，我们建议采用一种方法，根据对滋扰和损坏风险的容忍度（在 Mw 2.0-5.0 之间变化）来设置红光量级。对已颁布 TLP 的北美页岩区之间的结果进行比较表明，滋扰风险一直是确定红灯阈值的影响因素。我们的方法为以风险知情的方式设计的交通灯协议提供了定量指导，保留了基于幅度的阈值的实施简单性。此外，