Expanding and enhancing protected area networks (PAs) is at the forefront of efforts to conserve and restore global biodiversity but climate change and habitat loss can interact synergistically to undermine the potential benefits of PAs. Targeting conservation, adaptation and mitigation efforts requires understanding climate and land-use patterns within PAs, both currently and under future scenarios. Here, projecting rates of temporal and spatial displacement of climate and land-use revealed that more than one-quarter of the world’s PAs (~27%) are located in regions that will experience both high rates of climate change and land-use change by 2050. Substantial changes are expected to occur more often within PAs distributed across tropical moist and grassland biomes, which currently host diverse tetrapods and vascular plants, and fall into less-stringent management categories. Taken together, our findings can inform spatially adaptive natural resource management and actions to achieve sustainable development and biodiversity goals.

扩大和加强保护区网络 (PA) 是保护和恢复全球生物多样性努力的最前沿，但气候变化和栖息地丧失可以协同作用，破坏保护区的潜在利益。针对保护、适应和减缓工作需要了解保护区内的气候和土地利用模式，包括当前和未来情景。在这里，气候和土地利用的时间和空间置换率的预测表明，世界上超过四分之一的保护区（~27%）位于气候变化和土地利用变化率都很高的地区2050. 预计在分布于热带潮湿和草原生物群系的保护区内将更频繁地发生实质性变化，这些保护区目前拥有多种四足动物和维管植物，属于不太严格的管理类别。总之，我们的研究结果可以为空间适应性自然资源管理和行动提供信息，以实现可持续发展和生物多样性目标。