This study aims to analyze the environmental and economic impacts of land use change and water abstraction in the Zarrineh River basin, which is Lake Urmia’s main inflow source in the north-west of Iran. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model water quantity and quality in the basin. Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) are used to assess the relationship between environmental degradation and the development of the agricultural sector. Two scenarios were employed to identify the effects of dam construction and land use change on stream flow, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and nitrate loads in the area. The SWAT model showed a satisfactory to very good performance for monthly stream flow at most of the gauges in calibration and validation periods as well as a reasonable performance for nitrate loads. The estimated EKC indicates that the environmental degradation in the inverted U-shape that has passed its peak and the rate of degradation has decreased. Based on the scenarios, the dam has a strong impact on nitrate loads in the basin and water inflow into Lake Urmia. Results verify that human influences have had negative impacts on the Zarrineh River basin. In particular, the extensive development of the agricultural sector has not only drastically reduced the inflow of water to Lake Urmia accelerating the drying up of the lake, but it has also increased nitrate loads. Therefore, it can be recommended to take counter measures within the catchment area to improve the ecological status of Lake Urmia.

本研究旨在分析扎里尼河流域土地利用变化和取水对环境和经济的影响，扎里尼河流域是伊朗西北部乌尔米亚湖的主要流入源。土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 用于模拟流域中的水量和水质。环境库兹涅茨曲线 (EKC) 用于评估环境退化与农业部门发展之间的关系。使用两种情景来确定大坝建设和土地利用变化对该地区河流流量、蒸发蒸腾、地下水补给和硝酸盐负荷的影响。SWAT 模型在校准和验证期间的大多数仪表上显示出令人满意到非常好的月流量性能，以及对硝酸盐负载的合理性能。估计的EKC表明，环境退化已经过了峰值的倒U形，退化的速度已经下降。根据情景，大坝对流域中的硝酸盐负荷和流入乌尔米亚湖的水有很大影响。结果证实，人类影响对扎里尼河流域产生了负面影响。尤其是农业的粗放发展，不仅大大减少了流入乌尔米亚湖的水量，加速了湖泊的干涸，而且还增加了硝酸盐负荷。因此，建议在流域范围内采取应对措施，改善乌尔米亚湖的生态状况。根据情景，大坝对流域中的硝酸盐负荷和流入乌尔米亚湖的水有很大影响。结果证实，人类影响对扎里尼河流域产生了负面影响。尤其是农业的粗放发展，不仅大大减少了流入乌尔米亚湖的水量，加速了湖泊的干涸，而且还增加了硝酸盐负荷。因此，建议在流域范围内采取应对措施，改善乌尔米亚湖的生态状况。根据情景，大坝对流域中的硝酸盐负荷和流入乌尔米亚湖的水有很大影响。结果证实，人类影响对扎里尼河流域产生了负面影响。尤其是农业的粗放发展，不仅大大减少了流入乌尔米亚湖的水量，加速了湖泊的干涸，而且还增加了硝酸盐负荷。因此，建议在流域范围内采取应对措施，改善乌尔米亚湖的生态状况。农业部门的广泛发展不仅大大减少了流入乌尔米亚湖的水量，加速了湖泊的干涸，而且还增加了硝酸盐负荷。因此，建议在流域范围内采取应对措施，改善乌尔米亚湖的生态状况。农业部门的广泛发展不仅大大减少了流入乌尔米亚湖的水量，加速了湖泊的干涸，而且还增加了硝酸盐负荷。因此，建议在流域范围内采取应对措施，改善乌尔米亚湖的生态状况。