The flood insurance protection gap, the level of uninsured flood risk, is a problem faced by many European countries and is expected to increase due to climate change. In some countries a cause of low demand for flood insurance is the crowding out of private insurance uptake due to the anticipation of government compensation for uninsured damage, a phenomenon known as charity hazard. This study applies a partial equilibrium model of flood insurance markets to explore the extent of charity hazard and the insurance protection gap for EU-countries until 2050. For this analysis, we apply an expected utility framework with insurance purchase decision functions that capture the probability, ambiguity and extent of government compensation. By accounting for country-level insurance systems and government compensation types, as well as regional flood risk, we aim to assess how charity hazard develops under different conditions. The extent of charity hazard decreases with uncertainty of government compensation, as well as with higher flood risk. Considering current and future conditions, the highest impact of charity hazard is observed in regions of Germany and Italy. The projected insurance protection gap is highest in Germany, followed by Spain, Poland and Italy, and is expected to grow towards 2050.

洪水保险保障缺口，即未投保洪水风险的水平，是许多欧洲国家面临的问题，预计会因气候变化而扩大。在一些国家，洪水保险需求低的一个原因是由于预期政府会对未投保的损失进行赔偿，这种现象被称为慈善风险，从而排挤了私人保险的使用。本研究应用洪水保险市场的部分均衡模型来探讨欧盟国家到 2050 年慈善风险的程度和保险保障缺口。在此分析中，我们应用了具有保险购买决策函数的预期效用框架，该框架捕获概率，政府补偿的模糊性和范围。通过考虑国家层面的保险制度和政府补偿类型，以及区域洪水风险，我们旨在评估慈善风险在不同条件下的发展情况。慈善风险的程度随着政府补偿的不确定性以及洪水风险的增加而降低。考虑到当前和未来的情况，在德国和意大利地区观察到慈善风险的最大影响。预计的保险保障缺口在德国最高，其次是西班牙、波兰和意大利，预计到 2050 年将增长。