By mapping land use under projections of socio-economic change, ecological changes can be predicted to inform conservation decision-making. We present a land use model that enables the fine-scale mapping of land use change under future scenarios. Its predictions can be used as input to virtually all existing spatially-explicit ecological models. Our model maps the fractional cover of land use within each grid cell, providing higher information content than discrete classes at the same spatial resolution. The method accurately reproduced land use patterns observed in the Amazon, both in terms of the allocated fractional amounts and also the direction of predicted land use changes. A small case study showcases the application of our model to reproduce patterns of agricultural expansion and natural habitat declines. The model source code is provided as an open-source R package, making this new method available to bridge the gap between socio-economic, land use and biodiversity modelling.

通过根据社会经济变化的预测绘制土地利用图，可以预测生态变化，为保护决策提供信息。我们提出了一个土地利用模型，可以在未来情景下对土地利用变化进行精细映射。它的预测可以用作几乎所有现有空间明确生态模型的输入。我们的模型绘制了每个网格单元内土地利用的部分覆盖，在相同的空间分辨率下提供比离散类更高的信息内容。该方法准确地再现了在亚马逊地区观察到的土地利用模式，包括分配的分数和预测的土地利用变化的方向。一个小型案例研究展示了我们的模型在重现农业扩张和自然栖息地下降模式方面的应用。