Why do some secessionist claims turn violent and others stay peaceful? This study elucidates the role of inequality and diversionary tactics of states in secessionist violence. Horizontal inequality increases the grievances of minorities and fuels rebellion. States with high vertical inequality prefer to suppress peripheries instead of increasing redistribution and alleviating their material grievances. States shun redistributing toward peripheral regions because sharing with one group prompts demands for redistribution among other groups, including the dominant group. Fearing resource reallocation at the national scale and potential loss of their elevated social status, the elites opt for violent solutions for secessionist crises. Using a new dataset on self-determination movements I test these conjectures and find strong support for them.

为什么一些分裂主义主张会变成暴力而另一些则保持和平？本研究阐明了国家在分裂主义暴力中的不平等和转移策略的作用。横向不平等加剧了少数群体的不满并助长了叛乱。纵向不平等程度高的国家更愿意压制外围，而不是增加再分配和减轻他们的物质不满。国家避免向外围地区重新分配，因为与一个群体共享会促使其他群体（包括主导群体）之间进行重新分配。由于担心在全国范围内进行资源重新分配以及可能丧失其较高的社会地位，精英们为分裂主义危机选择了暴力解决方案。使用关于自决运动的新数据集，我测试了这些猜想并找到了对它们的有力支持。