We present a method for measuring the efficacy of eyewitness identification procedures by applying fundamental principles of information theory. The resulting measure evaluates the expected information gain (EIG) for an identification attempt, a single value that summarizes an identification procedure’s overall potential for reducing uncertainty about guilt or innocence across all possible witness responses. In a series of demonstrations, we show that EIG often disagrees with existing measures (e.g., diagnosticity ratios or area under the receiver operating characteristic) about the relative effectiveness of different identification procedures. Each demonstration is designed to highlight key distinctions between existing measures and EIG. An overarching theme is that EIG provides a complete measure of evidentiary value, in the sense that it factors in all aspects of identification performance. Collectively, these demonstrations show that EIG has substantial potential to inspire new discoveries in eyewitness research and provide a new perspective on policy recommendations for the use of identifications in real investigations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved)

中文翻译：

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评估目击者身份识别程序有效性的完整方法：预期信息增益。

我们提出了一种通过应用信息论的基本原理来衡量目击者身份识别程序有效性的方法。由此产生的措施评估了识别尝试的预期信息增益 (EIG)，这是一个单一值，它总结了识别程序在减少所有可能的证人反应中关于有罪或无罪的不确定性的整体潜力。在一系列演示中，我们表明 EIG 经常不同意关于不同识别程序的相对有效性的现有措施（例如，诊断率或接受者操作特征下的面积）。每个演示都旨在突出现有措施与 EIG 之间的主要区别。一个总体主题是 EIG 提供了一个完整的证据价值衡量标准，从某种意义上说，它会影响识别性能的各个方面。总的来说，这些演示表明，EIG 具有激发目击者研究新发现的巨大潜力，并为在实际调查中使用身份证明提供政策建议的新视角。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2021 APA，保留所有权利）