Abstract

Decarcerative policies aim to decrease rates of incarceration primarily through lessening the severity of criminal sanctions. These policies have proliferated in recent years as states looked to reduce correctional expenditures and begin to reverse decades of growth in incarceration. Yet, there are relatively few empirical studies that examine decarcerative policies. This study evaluates the impact of California’s Proposition 47 (Prop 47), which reduced penalties for a variety of low-level offenses. We utilize a range of causal methods (difference in difference, triple difference, and synthetic control group analysis) to estimate the effects of the policy on property crime rates in the Los Angeles; and to examine the potential mechanisms driving these effects. We find robust evidence that Prop 47 increased property crime in Los Angeles, and this finding emerges across our methodological approaches. We discuss our findings in the context of a growing body of literature on Prop 47; and conclude that the policy was effective in limiting crime rate increases to anticipated and low-level offenses while achieving its primary aim of decarceration.

摘要

减刑政策旨在主要通过减轻刑事制裁的严厉程度来降低监禁率。近年来，随着各州寻求减少惩教支出并开始扭转监禁数十年的增长趋势，这些政策激增。然而，检验去歧视性政策的实证研究相对较少。本研究评估了加利福尼亚州第 47 号提案（第 47 号提案）的影响，该提案减少了对各种低级别违法行为的处罚。我们利用一系列因果方法（差中差、三重差和综合控制组分析）来估计该政策对洛杉矶财产犯罪率的影响；并检查驱动这些影响的潜在机制。我们发现强有力的证据表明 47 号提案增加了洛杉矶的财产犯罪，这一发现出现在我们的方法论方法中。我们在越来越多的关于第 47 号提案的文献的背景下讨论我们的发现；并得出结论，该政策有效地将犯罪率增长限制在预期的和低级别的犯罪，同时实现了其主要目标 decarceration。