Abstract

Limited research has taken the contingency perspective to analyze the conditions under which the impact of top leader turnover on public organizations’ performance may vary. Using panel data from New York City public high schools, this study not only examines the main effect of principal turnover on schools’ performance but also how the main effect depends on schools’ baseline performance. Two estimation strategies—namely fixed effect models and Blundell–Bond dynamic panel models—find a consistent pattern that leader turnover is negatively associated with subsequent organizational performance, and the negative impact is stronger in low-performing organizations than it is in high-performing organizations. This study contributes to the literature by showing that the disruptive effects of leader turnover outweigh the adaptive effects in some public organizations. Moreover, the contingency perspective highlights the role of pre-turnover performance in moderating the effect of leader turnover.

摘要

有限的研究从权变的角度分析了高层领导更替对公共组织绩效的影响可能会发生变化的条件。本研究使用纽约市公立高中的面板数据，不仅考察了校长流动对学校绩效的主要影响，而且还考察了主要影响如何取决于学校的基线绩效。两种估计策略——即固定效应模型和布伦德尔-邦德动态面板模型——发现了一个一致的模式，即领导者更替与随后的组织绩效呈负相关，并且这种负面影响在低绩效组织中比在高绩效组织中更强. 这项研究通过表明领导者更替的破坏性影响超过了一些公共组织中的适应性影响，从而为文献做出了贡献。此外，权变观点强调了离职前绩效在调节领导者离职效应中的作用。