We investigated how lake thermal processes responded to whole lake warming manipulation in an arctic lake through observations and numerical modeling. The warming manipulation was conducted by artificially heating the epilimnion as a proxy for climate warming. We performed numerical modeling with an improved lake scheme based on the Community Land Model (CLM). We simulated a control run (CTL) without warming and a warming manipulation simulation (WARM). Results indicated WARM accurately captured observed temperatures where water stratification was extended in time, and water stability was strengthened. Two additional sensitivity tests with different warming onset dates and of the same warming duration showed that earlier warming onsets are predicted to make the water column more stable and less easily mixed relative to a later onset of warming. The results provide a more complete understanding of lake thermal processes in arctic freshwater lake systems and how they will respond to predicted future warming.

中文翻译：

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预测北极湖泊对全湖变暖操纵的热响应

我们通过观测和数值建模研究了湖泊热过程如何对北极湖泊中的整个湖泊变暖做出响应。变暖操纵是通过人工加热表皮作为气候变暖的代表来进行的。我们使用基于社区土地模型 (CLM) 的改进湖泊方案进行数值建模。我们模拟了不加温的控制运行 (CTL) 和加温操作模拟 (WARM)。结果表明，WARM 准确捕获了观测温度，及时延长了水分层，增强了水稳定性。两个具有不同变暖开始日期和相同变暖持续时间的额外敏感性测试表明，相对于较晚的变暖开始，较早的变暖开始预计会使水体更稳定，更不容易混合。