BACKGROUND
While most studies analyze male’s and female’s employment separately, this study adopts a couple-level approach to relate paid work to childbearing in the United States. In addition, building on previous studies suggesting the existence of spillovers from others’ unemployment, I explore whether state-level unemployment rates moderate this association.

OBJECTIVE
First, this study investigates how couples’ paid work, i.e., both partners’ combination of employment, working hours, inactivity, or unemployment, is associated with first birth. Second, the study tests whether this association varies depending on state unemployment rates across the decades around the Great Recession.

METHODS
Using the 2003–2017 PSID waves, the probability of a first child across couples’ job constellations and aggregate labor market conditions is estimated using a linear probability model. A number of robustness checks are run, including fixed effects models.

RESULTS
Both men’s and women’s unemployment similarly lower the probability of a first birth, as does the male breadwinner model. Full-time dual-earner couples display the greatest probability of a first birth. However, rising unemployment rates greatly reduce the advantage of dual-earners compared to single-earner couples.

CONCLUSIONS
In a context of low public support for childbearing, couples tend to rely on the paid full-time work of both partners to enter parenthood. Moreover, women’s work seems as relevant as that of their partners in shaping household childbearing decisions. Aggregate unemployment attenuates these differences, reducing the advantage of full-time dual work.



中文翻译：

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美国的夫妻有偿工作、州级失业和第一胎（作者：Chiara Ludovica Comolli）

背景
虽然大多数研究分别分析男性和女性的就业情况，但本研究采用夫妻层面的方法将美国的有偿工作与生育联系起来。此外，基于先前表明存在其他人失业溢出效应的研究，我探讨了州级失业率是否会缓和这种关联。

目标
首先，本研究调查夫妻的有偿工作，即夫妻双方的就业、工作时间、不活动或失业与第一次生育之间的关系。其次，该研究测试了这种关联是否因大衰退前后几十年的州失业率而异。

方法
使用 2003-2017 年的 PSID 波，使用线性概率模型估计跨夫妇的工作星座和总体劳动力市场条件的第一个孩子的概率。运行了许多稳健性检查，包括固定效应模型。

结果
与男性养家糊口模式一样，男性和女性的失业同样会降低第一胎的概率。全职双职工夫妇首次生育的​​可能性最大。然而，与单收入夫妇相比，不断上升的失业率大大降低了双职工的优势。

结论
在公众对生育支持率较低的情况下，夫妻往往依赖双方的全职带薪工作来为人父母。此外，在影响家庭生育决策方面，妇女的工作似乎与其伴侣的工作一样重要。总失业率减弱了这些差异，降低了全职双重工作的优势。