Abstract

Since the early 1960s, Israel has used the Dimona reactor in the Negev Desert for unsafeguarded plutonium production. Estimates of cumulative plutonium production have been very uncertain, however, because the power level of the reactor is unknown, and there is a lack of detail about the reactor design. This analysis presents new estimates of historic plutonium production in Israel based on neutronics calculations for the Dimona reactor. As of December 2020, we estimate that the cumulative production of plutonium is 830 ± 100 kg. Israel continues to operate the Dimona reactor today, possibly to offset the decay of its stock of tritium. For these reasons, the production of tritium and the possible production of enriched uranium are also briefly discussed. Calculations suggest that the reactor could make on the order of 50–60 grams of tritium and support an arsenal of about one hundred advanced nuclear weapons. The paper also includes a critical review of the 1986 testimony by the Dimona technician and whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu, which provided much of the basis for public discussion of the reactor’s power and operation.

摘要

自 1960 年代初以来，以色列一直使用内盖夫沙漠中的迪莫纳反应堆进行无保障的钚生产。然而，对累积钚产量的估计非常不确定，因为反应堆的功率水平未知，而且缺乏关于反应堆设计的细节。该分析根据 Dimona 反应堆的中子学计算，对以色列历史上的钚产量进行了新的估计。截至 2020 年 12 月，我们估计钚的累计产量为 830±100 公斤。以色列今天继续运行迪莫纳反应堆，可能是为了抵消其氚库存的衰减。由于这些原因，还简要讨论了氚的生产和浓缩铀的可能生产。计算表明，该反应堆可以生产大约 50-60 克氚，并支持大约 100 件先进核武器。该论文还包括对 Dimona 技术人员和举报人 Mordechai Vanunu 1986 年证词的批判性审查，该证词为公众讨论反应堆的功率和运行提供了大部分基础。