Understanding climate change impacts on top predators is fundamental to marine biodiversity conservation, due to their increasingly threatened populations and their importance in marine ecosystems. We conducted a systematic review of the effects of climate change (prolonged, directional change) and climate variability on seabirds and marine mammals. We extracted data from 484 studies (4808 published studies were reviewed), comprising 2215 observations on demography, phenology, distribution, diet, behaviour, body condition and physiology. The likelihood of concluding that climate change had an impact increased with study duration. However, the temporal thresholds for the effects of climate change to be discernibly varied from 10 to 29 years depending on the species, the biological response and the oceanic study region. Species with narrow thermal ranges and relatively long generation times were more often reported to be affected by climate change. This provides an important framework for future assessments, with guidance on response- and region-specific temporal dimensions that need to be considered when reporting effects of climate change. Finally, we found that tropical regions and non-breeding life stages were poorly covered in the literature, a concern that should be addressed to enable a better understanding of the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对海鸟和海洋哺乳动物的影响：研究持续时间、耐热性和世代时间的重要性。

由于它们日益受到威胁的种群及其在海洋生态系统中的重要性，了解气候变化对顶级捕食者的影响对于海洋生物多样性保护至关重要。我们对气候变化（长期、定向变化）和气候变异对海鸟和海洋哺乳动物的影响进行了系统评价。我们从 484 项研究中提取数据（审查了 4808 项已发表的研究），包括 2215 项关于人口统计学、物候学、分布、饮食、行为、身体状况和生理学的观察结果。得出气候变化有影响的结论的可能性随着研究时间的延长而增加。然而，根据物种、生物反应和海洋研究区域的不同，气候变化影响的时间阈值在 10 到 29 年之间有明显差异。据报道，温度范围较窄且世代时间相对较长的物种更常受到气候变化的影响。这为未来的评估提供了一个重要的框架，对报告气候变化影响时需要考虑的响应和特定区域的时间维度提供指导。最后，我们发现文献中很少涉及热带地区和非繁殖生命阶段，应该解决这一问题，以便更好地了解海洋捕食者对气候变化的脆弱性。在报告气候变化影响时需要考虑的响应和特定区域的时间维度提供指导。最后，我们发现文献中很少涉及热带地区和非繁殖生命阶段，应该解决这一问题，以便更好地了解海洋捕食者对气候变化的脆弱性。在报告气候变化影响时需要考虑的响应和特定区域的时间维度提供指导。最后，我们发现文献中很少涉及热带地区和非繁殖生命阶段，应该解决这一问题，以便更好地了解海洋捕食者对气候变化的脆弱性。