China consumes 28% of the world's N fertilizer and produces 17% of global wheat, and is currently self-sufficient. At issue is whether it will remain self-sufficient with the increases in wheat demand and the decreases in fertilizer N usage and harvested area. Here we quantified the detailed benefits of N management technique for wheat production and predicted the potential of China's wheat production in 2030 based on large-scale farmer surveys and N management technique. Results showed that applying individual N management techniques increased wheat yield by 3–11%, reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1–39%, and increased net ecosystem economic budget (NEEB) by 1–17%. Applying comprehensive N management techniques (combining optimized N rate with agronomic measures) showed better benefits. The findings of large-scale farmer survey showed that the national average (range at the county scale) wheat yield and N application rate was 5.7 (1.7 to 8.2) t ha⁻¹ and 210 (32 to 398) kg N ha⁻¹, respectively. The huge variations provided an opportunity to further improve the national wheat production. Scenario analysis indicated that applying comprehensive N management techniques increased wheat production by 7% (9 Mt), reduced GHG emissions by 17% (15 Mt CO₂ eq.), and increased NEEB by 9% (US$ 3 Billion). Such improvements are critical for China's response to the multiple challenges from food demand, environmental protection, and farmers’ livelihoods. These insights on N fertilizer management and sustainable wheat production have important implications for countries and regions facing the dilemma of N management.