Much research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.

大量研究表明，为应对 COVID-19 大流行而实施的首次封锁与日常活动的变化以及犯罪的变化有关。虽然多种类型的暴力和财产犯罪在第一次封锁后立即减少，但网络犯罪率却有所上升。然而，很少有研究探讨中期多次封锁与犯罪之间的关系。此外，很少有研究使用相同的数据集分析线下和线上犯罪的潜在对比趋势。为了填补这些研究空白，本文采用断续时间序列分析来研究北爱尔兰实施的三项封锁令对线下和线上犯罪的影响。我们分析了警方在 2015 年 4 月至 2021 年 5 月期间记录的犯罪数据。结果显示，许多类型的传统线下犯罪在封锁后有所减少，但随后又反弹至大流行前的水平。相比之下，结果似乎表明，网络欺诈和依赖网络的犯罪随着封锁导致的网络习惯变化而增加，并且仍然高于 COVID-19 之前的水平。疫情很可能加速了网络犯罪的长期上升趋势。我们还发现，有居家令的封锁对犯罪的影响比没有居家令的封锁更明显。我们的研究结果有助于了解流行病应对措施如何影响中期犯罪趋势，并帮助确定流行病对犯罪的潜在长期影响，从而加强政策和实践的证据基础。