Predation is often the leading cause of nest failure among passerines; however, specific causes are often unknown or can be misidentified in the field. Therefore, it is critical to improve our understanding of causes of nest predation and factors that influence passerine nest success. In the remnant bottomland hardwood forests of east-central Arkansas, we monitored 282 passerine nests during summers 2010-2012, including 81 nests at which we deployed video cameras. We calculated daily survival rates (DSRs) across species, locations, and years and determined which temporal, biological, and habitat variables correlated with nest success. We also estimated predation rates by specific predator groups. Our largest sample-sized species, Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea, n = 143 nests) and Northern Cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis, n = 97 nests), had similar mean DSRs (0.932 ? 0.01, 0.924 ? 0.01, respectively). Predation by all species and parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) together were the most frequent causes of nest failures (29% and 33%, respectively), although black rat snake (Pantherophis obsoletus) was the most frequent predator (37% of known predation events). Nest stage and number of vine tents best explained variation in DSRs; however, predictors of predation rates varied across predator groups. For example, vegetation density negatively influenced the probability of nest predation by snakes and mammals, but positively influenced the probability of nest predation by cowbirds and did not influence the probability of nest predation by other avian predators. Using camera systems can help elucidate nest fate patterns and predation trends across species and highlight factors such as time of predation, accurate nestling age, and interspecific interactions. Importantly, our predator-specific results suggest managers should consider techniques suitable for the suite of passerines and predators in their local ecosystems to alleviate high predation pressure, facilitate successful reproduction, and ultimately, population persistence.

中文翻译：

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美国阿肯色州中东部残留的低地阔叶林中的鼠蛇、牛鸟和藤蔓降低了燕雀巢的存活率

捕食往往是雀鸟筑巢失败的主要原因；然而，具体的原因通常是未知的，或者在现场可能会被错误地识别。因此，提高我们对巢捕食原因和影响雀巢成功的因素的理解至关重要。在阿肯色州中东部残留的低地阔叶林中，我们在 2010-2012 年夏季监测了 282 个雀巢，其中我们部署了摄像机的 81 个巢。我们计算了不同物种、地点和年份的每日存活率 (DSR)，并确定了哪些时间、生物和栖息地变量与筑巢成功相关。我们还估计了特定捕食者群体的捕食率。我们最大的样本物种，Indigo Buntings（Passerina cyanea，n = 143 个巢穴）和 Northern Cardinals（Cardinalis cardinalis，n = 97 个巢穴），具有相似的平均 DSR（分别为 0.932 ? 0.01、0.924 ? 0.01）。所有物种的捕食和褐头牛（Molothrus ater）的寄生是造成巢穴失败的最常见原因（分别为 29% 和 33%），尽管黑鼠蛇（Pantherophis obsoletus）是最常见的捕食者（37%）已知的捕食事件）。筑巢阶段和藤蔓帐篷的数量最能解释 DSR 的变化；然而，捕食率的预测因子因捕食者群体而异。例如，植被密度对蛇类和哺乳动物捕食巢穴的概率有负面影响，但对牛鸟捕食巢穴的概率有正面影响，而对其他鸟类捕食者的巢穴捕食概率没有影响。使用相机系统可以帮助阐明不同物种的巢穴命运模式和捕食趋势，并突出捕食时间、准确的雏鸟年龄和种间相互作用等因素。重要的是，我们针对特定捕食者的结果表明，管理者应该考虑适用于当地生态系统中的雀类和捕食者套件的技术，以减轻高捕食压力，促进成功繁殖，并最终实现种群持久性。