Increasing the power grid peak in the summer time causes power outages in industries and residential areas in Iran. The most obvious example of this issue is the power outages in the summer of 2018. Management of the demand-side is the most important strategy to reduce the grid peak due to the high cost of the development of the power plant capacity (500$ per kilowatt). In the present study, the effect of behavioral parameters in decreasing the power grid peak was identified. The behavioral simulation was done as an agent-based model using the raw data of the time-use survey (TUS) of the Statistics Center of Iran. 4228 urban households were surveyed, and the quality of people’s behavior was determined in each time step of 15 minutes during the day and night with 2 deterministic and stochastic approaches. In the stochastic approach, the Markov chain method was used. It showed that the power grid peak can only be reduced by 10% with behavioral flexibility and up to 25% by upgrading technology. In addition, based on the power deficit in 2018, 2000 megawatts of solar power capacity must be added to the network at peak times to meet grid demand.

中文翻译：

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防止停电危机的解决方案：确定太阳能的行为潜力和容量

增加夏季电网高峰导致伊朗工业和居民区停电。这个问题最明显的例子是 2018 年夏季的停电。 由于发电厂容量开发成本高（500 美元/年），需求侧管理是降低电网峰值的最重要策略。千瓦）。在本研究中，确定了行为参数对降低电网峰值的影响。行为模拟是作为基于代理的模型使用伊朗统计中心时间使用调查 (TUS) 的原始数据完成的。对4228户城镇家庭进行了调查，采用确定性和随机性2种方法，在白天和黑夜每15分钟的时间步长确定人们的行为质量。在随机方法中，使用马尔可夫链方法。结果表明，通过行为灵活性，电网峰值只能降低 10%，而通过技术升级最多可降低 25%。此外，基于2018年的电力缺口，高峰时段必须向电网增加2000兆瓦的太阳能发电容量以满足电网需求。