Hantavirus outbreaks in the American Southwest are hypothesized to be driven by episodic seasonal events of high precipitation, promoting rapid increases in virus-reservoir rodent species that then move across the landscape from high quality montane forested habitats (refugia), eventually over-running human residences and increasing disease risk. In this study, the velocities of rodents and virus diffusion wave propagation and retraction were documented and quantified in the sky-islands of northern New Mexico and related to rodent-virus relationships in refugia versus nonrefugia habitats. Deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) refugia populations exhibited higher Sin Nombre Virus (SNV) infection prevalence than nonrefugia populations. The velocity of propagating diffusion waves of Peromyscus from montane to lower grassland habitats was measured at 24.6 ± 5.6 m/day (SE), with wave retraction velocities of 28 ± 8.4 m/day. SNV infection diffusion wave propagation velocity within a deer mouse population averaged 27.5 ± 7.8 m/day, with a faster retraction wave velocity of 161.5 ± 80.7 m/day. A spatio-temporal analysis of human Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) cases during the initial 1993 epidemic revealed a positive linear relationship between the time during the epidemic and the distance of human cases from the nearest deer mouse refugium, with a landscape diffusion wave velocity of 19.6 ± 1.0 m/day (r2 = 0.96). These consistent diffusion propagation wave velocity results support the traveling wave component of the HPS outbreak theory and can provide information on space–time constraints for future outbreak forecasts.

中文翻译：

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美国西南部的汉坦病毒爆发：来自天岛避难所的啮齿动物和病毒扩散波的传播和收缩

假设美国西南部的汉坦病毒爆发是由高降水的周期性季节性事件驱动的，促进病毒库啮齿动物物种的快速增加，然后从高质量的山地森林栖息地（避难所）穿过景观，最终超出人类住所并增加疾病风险。在这项研究中，在新墨西哥州北部的天空岛上记录和量化了啮齿动物和病毒扩散波传播和收缩的速度，并与避难所与非避难所栖息地的啮齿动物-病毒关系有关。鹿鼠 (手足鲈) 避难所人口表现出更高罪名病毒(SNV) 感染率高于非难民人群。扩散波的传播速度鲈鱼从山地到低草原栖息地的测量时间为24.6 ± 5.6米/天（SE），波回缩速度为28 ± 8.4米/天。鹿鼠种群内 SNV 感染扩散波传播速度的平均值27.5 ± 7.8米/天，具有更快的回波速度161.5 ± 80.7米/天。对 1993 年最初流行期间人类汉坦病毒肺综合征 (HPS) 病例的时空分析显示，流行期间的时间与人类病例距最近的鹿鼠避难所的距离呈正线性关系，景观扩散波速度为19.6 ± 1.0米/天 (r2 = 0.96）。这些一致的扩散传播波速结果支持 HPS 暴发理论的行波分量，并可以为未来暴发预测提供有关时空限制的信息。