Trioza erytreae is one natural psyllid vector of Candidatus liberibacter, the causal agent of the citrus greening disease (HLB). Since its introduction in 2014 into the Iberian Peninsula, T. erytreae was able to spread continuously toward southern coastal regions of Portugal and northern coastal regions of the Cantabric sea in Spain. Identifying key areas of potential colonization by the psyllid vector is crucial to anticipate derived problems of establishing the disease. This work aimed to find potential areas that could be colonized by T. erytreae throughout the Iberian Peninsula using 1 km spatial data resolution, a physical barrier, long-distance dispersal events (LDEs), and 30 years of simulation. The bioclimatic suitability of Citrus spp. was used as a surrogate of its spatial distribution and a measure of habitat invasibility. Two localities, one in Portugal and one in Spain, were considered as initial points of the spread of T. erytreae. Four spread scenarios were initially simulated, corresponding to very low, low, medium, and high spread. An altitude of 400 m was included in the model as a physical barrier, and cells up to 500 km apart were allowed to be colonized due to LDEs. In this work, three key risk areas were identified, the citrus-growing areas of Setúbal (Portugal) and Huelva (Spain), and the potential corridors that may connect Guipúzcoa, where T. erytreae is already present, with the Ebro valley (Spain). Future modeling and simulation studies should include biological constraints such as the effect of parasitoids on the population of T. erytreae (e.g., Tamarixia dryi) and other barriers or corridors.

Trioza erytreae是柑橘绿化病 (HLB) 的病原体Candidatus liberibacter 的一种天然木虱载体。自 2014 年引入伊比利亚半岛以来，T. erytreae能够不断向葡萄牙南部沿海地区和西班牙坎塔布里奇海北部沿海地区蔓延。确定木虱载体潜在定殖的关键区域对于预测建立疾病的衍生问题至关重要。这项工作旨在利用 1 公里的空间数据分辨率、物理屏障、长距离扩散事件 (LDE) 和 30 年的模拟，寻找可以在整个伊比利亚半岛被T. erytreae定殖的潜在区域。生物气候适宜性柑橘属 被用作其空间分布的替代物和栖息地可入侵性的量度。两个地方，一个在葡萄牙，一个在西班牙，被认为是T. erytreae传播的起点。最初模拟了四种价差场景，分别对应于极低、低、中和高价差。模型中包含 400 m 的高度作为物理屏障，由于 LDE，允许相距 500 km 的细胞定植。在这项工作中，确定了三个关键风险区域，塞图巴尔（葡萄牙）和韦尔瓦（西班牙）的柑橘种植区，以及可能连接吉普斯夸（T. erytreae）的潜在走廊已经存在，与埃布罗山谷（西班牙）。未来的建模和仿真研究应包括生理的限制，如寄生蜂对人口的影响T. erytreae（例如，Tamarixia dryi）和其他障碍或走廊。