Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation,Ecology Letters

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Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation
Ecology Letters ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-11-05 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.13911
Damien A Fordham _{1,

2} , Stuart C Brown ₁ , H Reşit Akçakaya ₃ , Barry W Brook ₄ , Sean Haythorne ₁ , Andrea Manica ₅ , Kevin T Shoemaker ₆ , Jeremy J Austin ₁ , Benjamin Blonder ₇ , July A. Pilowsky _{1,

2} , Carsten Rahbek _{2,

8,

9,

10} , David Nogues-Bravo ₂

Affiliation

The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA.
School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England.
Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, USA.
Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA.
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, England.
Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
Institute of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing, China.

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

中文翻译：

过程显式模型使用面向模式的验证揭示猛犸象的灭绝途径

灭绝的途径早在最后一个个体死亡之前就开始了。然而，早期种群下降的原因和少量残余种群对灭绝的敏感性通常是孤立研究的。使用经过验证的过程显式模型，我们理清了猛犸象最初衰退和后来灭绝的生态机制和威胁。我们表明，将猛犸象数量下降的古代 DNA 数据与灭绝地点和时间的化石证据相协调，需要具有特定人口和生态位限制的过程显式模型，以及气候变化和人类影响的受限协同作用。经过验证的模型需要人类加速气候驱动的人口下降几千年，并允许长毛猛犸象在北极大陆避难所中生存到全新世中期。我们的研究结果表明，人类在猛犸象灭绝动力学中的作用早在全新世之前就开始了，对其大范围灭绝的空间格局和时间产生了持久影响。

更新日期：2021-12-10

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