BACKGROUND
The majority of Turkish and Moroccan minorities in Western Europe prefer transnational marriages over local co-ethnic and mixed marriages. Recent studies indicate partner selection patterns might be shifting after remaining unchanged for decades. However, it remains unclear to what extent changes observed in earlier studies have continued to carry on.

OBJECTIVE
This paper provides a comprehensive insight into the most recent partner selection trends of Turkish and Moroccan minorities in Belgium and assesses whether and to what degree known dynamics related to marriage age and educational attainment may change.

METHODS
The Belgian National Register data are analyzed, including all Turkish and Moroccan minority members who married between 2005 and 2015 (N = 91,916). After describing the prevalence of three partner types and their trends, multinomial logistic regressions estimate the effect of marriage age and educational attainment on partner choice.

RESULTS
The prevalence of transnational marriages declines for all minority members. Local co-ethnic marriages mostly absorb this decline, but a strong increase in mixed marriages is also observed. The influence of marriage age and educational attainment on partner choice has changed over the last 15 years.

CONCLUSIONS
Results reveal a strong decline in transnational marriages, reinforced by stricter immigration policies but initiated by other – possibly attitudinal – mechanisms. Dynamics regarding ethnic endogamy are subject to change as mixed marriages are also increasing among women and the lower educated.



中文翻译：

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转型中的合作伙伴选择模式：比利时土耳其和摩洛哥少数民族的案例（作者：Amelie Van Pottelberge、Frank Caestecker、Bart Van de Putte、John Lievens）

背景
西欧的大多数土耳其和摩洛哥少数民族更喜欢跨国婚姻，而不是当地的同族通婚和异族通婚。最近的研究表明，伴侣选择模式在几十年来保持不变后可能会发生变化。然而，目前尚不清楚早期研究中观察到的变化在多大程度上继续进行。

目标
本文全面了解比利时土耳其和摩洛哥少数民族的最新伴侣选择趋势，并评估与结婚年龄和教育程度相关的已知动态是否以及在多大程度上可能会发生变化。

方法
分析了比利时国家登记数据，包括所有在 2005 年至 2015 年期间结婚的土耳其和摩洛哥少数民族成员（N = 91,916）。在描述了三种伴侣类型的流行程度及其趋势后，多项逻辑回归估计了结婚年龄和教育程度对伴侣选择的影响。

结果
所有少数民族成员的跨国婚姻流行率都下降了。当地的同族通婚大多吸收了这种下降，但也观察到异族通婚的强劲增长。在过去的 15 年中，结婚年龄和教育程度对伴侣选择的影响发生了变化。

结论
结果显示，跨国婚姻大幅下降，这受到更严格的移民政策的强化，但由其他（可能是态度）机制引发。随着女性和受教育程度较低的人的异族通婚也在增加，有关种族内婚的动态可能会发生变化。