Abstract

Reinterpreting the rise of contemporary macroeconomics, this article argues that what mattered most in the shift away from postwar Keynesianism was a new form of modeling called Real Business Cycles (RBC) – variations of which still dominate mainstream macroeconomics. But how could this form of modeling, championed by a handful of junior economists, affect a disciplinary coup in the face of strong opposition from Keynesian disciplinary powerbrokers? Content analysis, network mapping and deep reading of 197 articles by 331 authors suggest that RBC had a competitive edge as a tool of individual professional advancement, allowing it to rewire pre-existing networks of expertise in the face of strong opposition. Elaborating on the interdependence between individual professional appeal and the rise of new forms of formalized expertise, this article identifies three facets of RBC that made it a ‘super-model’, enabling its improbable takeover of macroeconomics: the ability to bond together a set of disparate ideas into a simple and workable whole (‘glue’), deflect known criticism (‘rubber’), and incorporate modified assumptions (‘putty’).

摘要

这篇文章重新解释了当代宏观经济学的兴起，认为在摆脱战后凯恩斯主义的过程中，最重要的是一种称为真实商业周期 (RBC) 的新模型——其变体仍然主导着主流宏观经济学。但是，面对凯恩斯主义纪律权力掮客的强烈反对，这种由少数初级经济学家倡导的建模形式如何影响纪律政变？内容分析、网络映射和对 331 位作者的 197 篇文章的深入阅读表明，RBC 作为个人职业发展的工具具有竞争优势，允许它在面对强烈反对时重新连接现有的专业知识网络。本文详细阐述了个人职业吸引力与新形式正式化专业知识兴起之间的相互依存关系，确定了 RBC 的三个方面，使其成为“超级模型”，使其能够不可思议地接管宏观经济学：将不同的想法变成一个简单且可行的整体（“胶水”），转移已知的批评（“橡胶”），并纳入修改后的假设（“腻子”）。