Miombo woodlands are the most extensive dry forest type in southern Africa, covering ca. 1.9 million km² across seven countries. Fire is a key ecosystem process that has structured miombo for the last 200,000 years. However, how fires affect the ecosystem's functioning is not well understood. In this study, we used the individual-based forest model called FORMIND to analyze the carbon balance in the miombo woodlands of Niassa Special Reserve (NSR), northern Mozambique. The 42.000 km² NSR represents the most important conservation area in Mozambique (~31% of the total conservation area in the country) and of miombo woodlands worldwide. Long-term inventory data from 2004 to 2019 for NSR were used to calibrate FORMIND. The primary ecosystem processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Fire is set as one of the main factors that affect these processes, after the woodland reaches an equilibrium at 200 years of age. We also calculated the Net Present Value (NPV) of carbon credits resulting from altering the fire regime (e.g., reducing or eliminating fires). The FORMIND model successfully reproduced important characteristics of the woodlands (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and basal area). NPV estimates of above-ground woody biomass carbon stocks were highly dependent on the woodland age. The maximum NPV estimates were generated for a 30-year project starting with 200 year old woodlands (the current forest age) at 192–1339 USD based on a realistic range of carbon values (i.e., 3–20 USD MgCO₂e⁻¹). While fire plays an important role in miombo woodlands by reducing stock and changing species composition, its effects on the capacity of the woodland to mitigate the effects of climate change varies depending on the age of stands. Our results show that FORMIND model reliably reproduce the field inventory data, thus can be used to improve carbon accounting standards. We recommend the development of a fire management system to sustain the miombo woodlands of NSR for multiple reasons. NSR is a globally significant protected area, but perhaps more importantly it could become a regional example for how to improve miombo woodland management. Given that miombo woodlands provide a myriad of ecosystem services to rural Africans, investing in improving fire management could increase the benefits to local communities. Altering fire regimes could improve habitat quality and promote greater resilience to climate change while sequestering carbon. In addition, local employment opportunities in fire management could be created via carbon financing from a carbon project. However, much more outreach and education will be needed to local and national stakeholders for fire management to be perceived more positively and realize the potential to generate multiple benefits for nature and people.

Miombo 林地是南部非洲最广泛的干燥森林类型，覆盖面积约 190 万公里²跨越七个国家。火是过去 200,000 年来构建 miombo 的关键生态系统过程。然而，火灾如何影响生态系统的功能尚不清楚。在这项研究中，我们使用名为 FORMIND 的基于个体的森林模型来分析莫桑比克北部尼亚萨特别保护区 (NSR) 的 miombo 林地的碳平衡。42.000 公里²NSR 是莫桑比克最重要的保护区（约占该国总保护区的 31%）和全世界的 miombo 林地。NSR 2004 年至 2019 年的长期清单数据用于校准 FORMIND。该模型的主要生态系统过程是树木生长、死亡、再生和竞争。在林地在 200 年达到平衡之后，火被设定为影响这些过程的主要因素之一。我们还计算了因改变火灾状况（例如，减少或消除火灾）而产生的碳信用的净现值 (NPV)。FORMIND 模型成功地再现了林地的重要特征（地上生物量、茎大小分布和基面积）。地上木质生物量碳库的 NPV 估计高度依赖于林地年龄。基于碳值的现实范围（即 3-20 美元 MgCO₂ e ^-1）。虽然火通过减少种群和改变物种组成在 miombo 林地中发挥着重要作用，但其对林地减轻气候变化影响的能力的影响因林木年龄而异。我们的结果表明 FORMIND 模型可靠地再现了现场清单数据，因此可用于改进碳核算标准。出于多种原因，我们建议开发火灾管理系统来维持 NSR 的 miombo 林地。NSR 是一个具有全球意义的保护区，但也许更重要的是，它可以成为如何改善 miombo 林地管理的区域示例。鉴于 miombo 林地为非洲农村人提供了无数的生态系统服务，投资于改善火灾管理可以增加当地社区的利益。改变火灾制度可以改善栖息地质量，并在固碳的同时提高对气候变化的适应能力。此外，当地的火灾管理就业机会可以通过碳项目的碳融资创造。然而，需要对地方和国家利益相关者进行更多的宣传和教育，以便更积极地看待火灾管理并实现为自然和人类带来多重利益的潜力。