ABSTRACT

Over the last 20 years, online shopping has evolved into a major threat to the physical retail store. We investigate whether retail real estate investors price e-commerce as an investment risk. In particular, we analyse whether e-commerce sales have informative value for retail real estate returns. Focusing on institutional-grade shopping centres over the period of 2000 to 2018, we find that e-commerce sales predict total returns in the next quarter. This effect is driven by capital returns, which suggests that e-commerce is indeed priced as an investment risk. While consistent across mall types, this effect is stronger for regional and super-regional malls than neighbourhood and community shopping centres. Explanations for this difference include the types of retail tenants in these different mall categories and the varying impact of e-commerce on their business.

摘要

在过去的 20 年里，网上购物已经演变成对实体零售店的主要威胁。我们调查零售房地产投资者是否将电子商务定价为投资风险。特别是，我们分析了电子商务销售是否对零售房地产回报具有信息价值。关注 2000 年至 2018 年期间的机构级购物中心，我们发现电子商务销售额预测下一季度的总回报。这种效应是由资本回报驱动的，这表明电子商务确实被定价为投资风险。虽然在各种购物中心类型中保持一致，但区域和超区域购物中心的这种影响比邻里和社区购物中心更强。