Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by reduction of fuel and food consumption and by implementation of negative emissions (such as forest carbon sequestration and carbon capture and storage) has been suggested in both scientific literature and practice, but there exist no calculations of the cost efficient combination of these measures. One challenge for calculations is the uncertainty in reductions of GHG, in particular for negative emissions, depending on e.g. stochastic weather conditions. This paper develops a static model with probabilistic emission constraints to calculate cost efficient emission reductions in the transportation (gasoline and diesel) and food (meat and dairy products) sectors combined with negative emission (carbon sequestration and carbon capture and storage technologies) creation in Sweden under uncertainty. The results show that emission reductions in fuel and food consumption are relatively expensive, and that carbon sequestration are relatively low cost measures. We also show that the regional effects at the county level are regressive, that is, that relatively poor counties will carry large cost burdens in the cost efficient solutions and that this effect is increased when negative emissions are included but decreased when uncertainty is considered.

科学文献和实践都建议通过减少燃料和食物消耗以及实施负排放（例如森林碳固存和碳捕获和储存）来减少温室气体 (GHG) 排放，但没有计算这些措施的成本效益组合。计算的一项挑战是温室气体减排的不确定性，尤其是负排放，这取决于随机天气条件。本文开发了一个带有概率排放约束的静态模型，以计算瑞典在交通运输（汽油和柴油）和食品（肉类和乳制品）部门结合负排放（碳封存和碳捕获和储存技术）创造的成本效益减排不确定性之下。结果表明，燃料和食品消耗的减排成本相对较高，而碳封存是成本相对较低的措施。我们还表明，县级的区域效应是递减的，也就是说，相对贫困的县将在具有成本效益的解决方案中承担较大的成本负担，当考虑到不确定性时，这种影响会增加，但在考虑不确定性时会减少。