Electric vehicles (EVs) can have massive benefits in energy sector especially for a small island country like the Maldives that imports oil with high transportation costs while power could have been generated from abundantly available local renewable resources. However, EV charging may also impose significant investment requirement for the power system that needs to be analyzed carefully including the capacity of the existing distribution network system, investments needed in solar PV together with battery storage and additional diesel capacity to meet the incremental demand from EVs. We explore an EV adoption scenario for Maldives for 2030 with 30% of all vehicles including two-wheelers that dominate the transport on the island under two different charging regimes: uncoordinated and optimized coordinated mode. The latter is achieved through a system wide optimization using a modified version of the World Bank Electricity Planning Model (EPM) that optimizes charging load subject to a range of constraints on allowable timing for different categories of vehicles. If charging from the fleet is uncoordinated, a relatively small increase in energy requirement of 3.1% due to EV may lead to a 26.1% increase in generation capacity requirement and hence 15.7% additional investment. While the optimized charging regime helps to drastically cut down on generation capacity requirements to just 1.8% increase and also considerably eases feeder loading, it may also lead to higher emissions as more EV load during off-peak hours lead to an increase in diesel-based generation. We have therefore explored an additional scenario wherein the annual emissions from the power sector are constrained to the baseline (“No EV”) scenario. The analysis shows the importance of focused modeling analysis to understand the ramifications of EV load impact on the power system including significant increase in generation capacity and potential increase in power sector emissions in a fossil-fuel dominated system.

中文翻译：

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乳腺组织病理学图像的贝叶斯神经网络分类器量化不确定性的解释和使用


电动汽车（EV）可以在能源领域带来巨大的好处，特别是对于像马尔代夫这样的小岛国来说，这些国家需要以高昂的运输成本进口石油，而电力可以通过当地丰富的可再生资源来发电。然而，电动汽车充电也可能对电力系统提出巨大的投资要求，需要仔细分析，包括现有配电网络系统的容量、太阳能光伏发电以及电池存储和额外柴油容量所需的投资，以满足电动汽车的增量需求。我们探索了马尔代夫到 2030 年采用电动汽车的方案，其中 30% 的车辆（包括两轮车）在两种不同的充电制度下主导岛上的交通：不协调和优化协调模式。后者是通过使用世界银行电力规划模型（EPM）的修改版本进行系统范围的优化来实现的，该模型根据不同类别车辆允许时间的一系列限制来优化充电负载。如果车队充电不协调，电动汽车带来的能源需求相对较小的增长（3.1%）可能会导致发电容量需求增加 26.1%，从而导致 15.7% 的额外投资。虽然优化的充电制度有助于大幅降低发电容量要求，仅增加 1.8%，并且还大大减轻了支线负载，但它也可能导致更高的排放，因为非高峰时段电动汽车负载增加导致柴油发电量增加。一代。因此，我们探索了另一种情景，其中电力部门的年排放量被限制在基准（“无电动汽车”）情景内。 该分析显示了重点建模分析的重要性，以了解电动汽车负载对电力系统影响的影响，包括发电能力的显着增加以及化石燃料主导系统中电力部门排放的潜在增加。