This article discusses the plausibility of historical analogies and general theoretical schemes in the study on contemporary international processes. It explains how the complex character of contemporary international relations modifies the previous role of theoretical generalizations and lessons from the past. The uncertainty of contemporary international processes, including the waves of global economic, social and political turbulences, makes the general theoretical schemes more tentative. It reduces the role played by historical analogies which become more risky and potentially inconclusive. They change their initial explanatory functions. The novelty and past experience intertwine in the analysis of contemporary international phenomena, yet the elements of uncertainty and novelty prevail. Theories respond to these challenges with flexibility and pragmatism, including some “middle ground” positions. Their ideas are valuable, but do not change the article’s conclusion that general theoretical schemes and historical analogies offer a limited practical advice in the study on contemporary international relations.

本文讨论了在当代国际进程研究中历史类比和一般理论方案的合理性。它解释了当代国际关系的复杂特征如何改变了以往理论概括和经验教训的作用。当代国际进程的不确定性，包括全球经济、社会和政治动荡的浪潮，使得一般的理论方案更具试探性。它减少了历史类比所发挥的作用，这些类比变得更具风险且可能不确定。它们改变了最初的解释功能。在对当代国际现象的分析中，新奇和过去的经验交织在一起，但不确定性和新奇的元素占了上风。理论以灵活和务实的态度应对这些挑战，包括一些“中间立场”。他们的想法很有价值，但不会改变文章的结论，即一般理论方案和历史类比在当代国际关系研究中提供的实践建议有限。