Innovation project selection is a decision of major relevance to firms. Errors in this decision may have serious consequences for firms, especially as many firms struggle with optimizing innovation project selection decisions. In their pitches to innovation decision-makers, project teams invariably present financial projections on their innovation projects, which often include best- and worst-case scenario presentation. Despite the potential influence the presentation of such financial projections has on firms’ innovation project selection decisions, this topic has not received sufficient attention in the literature. This study examines the role of scenario presentation on financial projections in innovation project selection by conducting two conjoint experiments among 2,425 managers and 11 follow-up interviews with senior executives. First, the findings of this study suggest that firms should help project teams present small- rather than large-range scenarios. This is important for at least the 57% of firms surveyed in this study where project teams are reported to present ‘too wide’ and ‘too extreme’ scenarios. Second, firms seeking to promote transformational innovation in their innovation pipeline should make the presentation of small-range scenarios required for an innovation proposal to be presented to a project selection committee. This is relevant for 79% of surveyed firms that would like to select more transformational than core innovation projects and especially for the half of which that currently do not require scenario presentation. Third, project teams with less expertise should develop scenarios analytically rather than intuitively and convey the project’s strategic merit to decision-makers to help increase innovation project selection likelihood.

创新项目的选择是与公司有重大关联的决定。这一决策中的错误可能会对公司产生严重后果，尤其是在许多公司努力优化创新项目选择决策的情况下。在向创新决策者推销时，项目团队总是对他们的创新项目进行财务预测，其中通常包括最佳和最坏情况的介绍。尽管这种财务预测的呈现对公司的创新项目选择决策有潜在的影响，但这个话题在文献中没有得到足够的关注。本研究通过对 2,425 名经理进行两项联合实验和对高级管理人员的 11 次后续访谈，检验了情景演示对财务预测在创新项目选择中的作用。第一的，这项研究的结果表明，公司应该帮助项目团队提出小范围的情景，而不是大范围的情景。这对于本研究中至少 57% 的被调查公司来说很重要，据报道项目团队提出了“过于宽泛”和“过于极端”的情景。其次，寻求在其创新管道中促进转型创新的公司应展示将创新提案提交给项目选择委员会所需的小范围场景。这与 79% 的受访公司相关，他们希望选择比核心创新项目更具变革性的项目，尤其是其中一半目前不需要情景演示的公司。第三，