Many countries have taken on ambitious but potentially costly renewable energy development goals to combat climate change. The government of Guatemala has introduced a plan to increase renewable generation capacity, while an estimated 76% of Guatemalans are energy poor. In this paper, we evaluate the trade-offs between alleviating energy poverty and achieving renewable energy goals in Guatemala. We present a framework that combines an electricity cost model with a household expenditure survey to assess the effects that a national renewable energy development goal could have on energy poverty through added electricity expenditures. We find that the development of new renewable electricity generation has potential to significantly increase tariffs for residential electricity consumers across the country, whereby 80% of municipalities could experience more than one-third increase in monthly energy expenditures. More importantly, we find that the distribution of impacts will not be equal everywhere: households in the western, rural part of Guatemala that are already energy stressed will likely experience the greatest cost burdens because natural resource availability is low while overall poverty is already high. In addition, we compare the costs of renewable versus fossil fuel development and find that the least-cost policy in Guatemala includes a mix of both renewable and fossil technologies.

许多国家已经采取了雄心勃勃但可能代价高昂的可再生能源发展目标来应对气候变化。危地马拉政府推出了一项提高可再生能源发电能力的计划，而估计有 76% 的危地马拉人能源匮乏。在本文中，我们评估了危地马拉减轻能源贫困和实现可再生能源目标之间的权衡。我们提出了一个将电力成本模型与家庭支出调查相结合的框架，以评估国家可再生能源发展目标可能通过增加电力支出对能源贫困产生的影响。我们发现新的可再生能源发电的发展有可能显着提高全国居民电力消费者的电价，80% 的城市每月能源支出可能增加三分之一以上。更重要的是，我们发现影响的分布并非处处均等：危地马拉西部农村地区已经面临能源压力的家庭可能会承受最大的成本负担，因为自然资源可用性低而总体贫困率已经很高。此外，我们比较了可再生能源与化石燃料开发的成本，发现危地马拉的最低成本政策包括可再生能源和化石燃料技术的混合。危地马拉已经面临能源压力的农村地区可能会承受最大的成本负担，因为自然资源供应量低，而总体贫困率已经很高。此外，我们比较了可再生能源与化石燃料开发的成本，发现危地马拉的最低成本政策包括可再生能源和化石燃料技术的混合。危地马拉已经面临能源压力的农村地区可能会承受最大的成本负担，因为自然资源供应量低，而总体贫困率已经很高。此外，我们比较了可再生能源与化石燃料开发的成本，发现危地马拉的最低成本政策包括可再生能源和化石燃料技术的混合。